U.S. Imports Reach Historic Highs in February 2025 Amid New Tariff Concerns
U.S. imports reached a record $290 billion in February 2025, a 21% increase from February 2024, driven by businesses stockpiling goods ahead of new tariffs. This followed January's 14-year high of over $320 billion. The surge was fueled by anticipatory purchasing, especially from China, Canada, and Mexico, targeted by the Trump administration's tariffs. The tariffs, effective from February, have significantly impacted commodity prices, with clothing and textiles seeing sharp increases. Despite the strong start, imports are expected to decline sharply in the second half of 2025 due to the tariffs.
Key Updates
04/16 10:21
U.S. Imports Reach Historic Highs in February 2025 Amid New Tariff Concerns
U.S. imports reached a record $290 billion in February 2025, a 21% increase from February 2024, driven by businesses stockpiling goods ahead of new tariffs. This followed January's 14-year high of over $320 billion. The surge was fueled by anticipatory purchasing, especially from China, Canada, and Mexico, targeted by the Trump administration's tariffs. The tariffs, effective from February, have significantly impacted commodity prices, with clothing and textiles seeing sharp increases. Despite the strong start, imports are expected to decline sharply in the second half of 2025 due to the tariffs.
February Import Surge: A Historic Milestone
February 2025 became the third-largest month for U.S. imports on record, trailing only January 2025 and March 2020. Despite being the shortest month of the year and typically subdued due to Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in China, U.S. ports handled 2.06 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs), up 5.2% year-over-year. This made it the busiest February in three years, according to Global Port Tracker data.
The import volume averaged more than $10 billion per day in both January and February, reflecting a concentrated effort by importers to build inventories before tariffs took full effect. The urgency was particularly acute for goods from China, where a 10% tariff implemented on February 4 was doubled to 20% in early March. Canada and Mexico, which had a 25% tariff paused for 30 days starting February 3, saw full implementation by March 4.
Retailers and Importers Race Against Tariff Clock
The import boom was largely driven by preemptive purchasing. Retailers and manufacturers accelerated shipments to avoid the financial impact of the new tariffs. “The surge is simply because people are engaged in preemptive or anticipatory purchasing,” said Marcus Noland, executive vice president at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
This sentiment was echoed by small business owners like Matthew Williams, founder of Envy Born Games, who faced a $1,486 tariff fee on a shipment from China in early March. “My livelihood is at risk,” Williams said, noting that the cost to ship his next batch of games would exceed manufacturing costs. He is now considering relocating production to Europe or Southeast Asia due to the prohibitive costs of U.S. manufacturing and the uncertainty surrounding trade policy.
Commodity Categories and Tariff Impacts
The 2025 tariffs have had a disproportionate impact on specific commodity categories. According to the Budget Lab at Yale University, clothing and textiles have been particularly affected, with short-term price increases of 87% for shoes and 65% for apparel. Even in the long run, prices are expected to remain elevated—29% higher for shoes and 25% for apparel.
These price hikes are a direct result of the average effective tariff rate, which has surged to 28%—the highest since 1901. Even after accounting for shifts in sourcing away from China, the post-substitution rate remains at 18%, the highest since 1934. China’s share of U.S. imports has already dropped from 14% to 3% as businesses seek alternative suppliers.
Trade Data and Port Activity
In terms of containerized cargo, U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 25.5 million TEUs in 2024, a 14.7% increase from 2023 and the highest since the pandemic-driven peak of 25.8 million TEUs in 2021. February’s 2.06 million TEUs represented a 7.5% decline from January but still marked a significant year-over-year increase.
The Ports of New York and New Jersey had not yet reported final February data as of mid-April, but preliminary figures suggest continued strength. March is projected at 2.14 million TEUs, up 11.1% year-over-year, while April is forecast at 2.08 million TEUs, up 3.1%.
Outlook: Sharp Decline Expected in Second Half of 2025
Despite the strong start to the year, the outlook for the remainder of 2025 is markedly different. With sweeping tariffs now in place on all major U.S. trading partners, import volumes are expected to decline sharply beginning in May. Hackett Associates projects a 20% year-over-year drop in imports during the second half of 2025, which could result in a net annual decline of 15% or more.
Forecasts for May through August show steep year-over-year declines: May is expected to fall to 1.66 million TEUs (down 20.5%), June to 1.57 million TEUs (down 26.6%), July to 1.69 million TEUs (down 27%), and August to 1.7 million TEUs (down 26.8%). These figures would end a 19-month streak of year-over-year growth in U.S. imports.
Tariff Timeline and Policy Developments
The current tariff environment has evolved rapidly. After initial announcements in early February, the Trump administration escalated tariffs throughout March and April. As of April 15, the average effective tariff rate stood at 28%, with some Chinese goods facing tariffs as high as 145%.
The Budget Lab estimates that the 2025 tariffs, if maintained, would raise $2.4 trillion in revenue over the next decade. However, they also project a 1.1 percentage point reduction in real GDP growth for 2025 and a persistent 0.6% contraction in the long run. The average U.S. household is expected to lose $4,900 in purchasing power in the short term due to higher consumer prices.
