India and the United States Begin Trade Deal Talks: Aiming for $500 Billion in Trade Value by 2030

TaiwanBusiness04/19 14:05
India and the United States Begin Trade Deal Talks: Aiming for $500 Billion in Trade Value by 2030

India and the United States are set to hold high-level trade talks in Washington from April 23 to 25, 2025, to kick off negotiations for a bilateral trade agreement covering 19 chapters that include trade in goods, services, and investment. Both countries aim to boost trade volume from $191 billion to $500 billion by 2030. The negotiations coincide with a 90-day tariff suspension period announced by President Trump, and both sides hope to leverage this window to speed up the agreement process.

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04/19 14:05

India and the United States Begin Trade Deal Talks: Aiming for $500 Billion in Trade Value by 2030

India and the United States are set to hold high-level trade talks in Washington from April 23 to 25, 2025, to kick off negotiations for a bilateral trade agreement covering 19 chapters that include trade in goods, services, and investment. Both countries aim to boost trade volume from $191 billion to $500 billion by 2030. The negotiations coincide with a 90-day tariff suspension period announced by President Trump, and both sides hope to leverage this window to speed up the agreement process.

Indian Delegation Heads to the US for First Round of In-Person Negotiations

A high-level delegation led by Rajesh Agrawal, Additional Secretary of the Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry, will hold the first round of in-person negotiations with the US in Washington from April 23 to 25. He was appointed as the next Minister of Commerce on April 18 and is expected to officially take office on October 1. This meeting marks the first in-person talks since the trade agreement consultations began in March, signifying the negotiations entering a substantive phase.

Agreement Covers 19 Chapters, Focuses on Tariff and Procedural Simplification

According to the agreed Terms of Reference (ToRs), the trade agreement will cover approximately 19 chapters, focusing on:

  • Trade in Goods
  • Trade in Services
  • Investment Regulations
  • Tariff Reduction and Elimination
  • Non-Tariff Barriers
  • Rules of Origin
  • Customs Procedures and Facilitation
  • Regulatory Transparency and Consistency

These chapters aim to establish an institutionalized trade platform to promote bilateral economic cooperation and market access.

Clear Demands from Both Sides, Focus on Specific Industries

In terms of negotiation content, the US seeks tariff concessions and market access from India in the following areas:

  • Industrial Products
  • Electric Vehicles
  • Wine and Spirits
  • Petrochemical Products
  • Dairy Products
  • Agricultural Products (such as apples, alfalfa hay, nuts)

India, on the other hand, seeks US tariff reductions on its labor-intensive products, including:

  • Textiles and Apparel
  • Gems and Jewelry
  • Leather Products
  • Plastics and Chemicals
  • Seafood (such as shrimp)
  • Oilseeds and Horticultural Products

These items reflect the differences in industrial structure and export orientation between the two sides and will be key issues in the negotiations.

90-Day Tariff Suspension Offers a Window for Negotiations

The rapid commencement of these negotiations is closely related to the 90-day tariff suspension announced by US President Trump on April 9. Previously, the US imposed tariffs of up to 26% on Indian goods on April 2 in response to India's expanding trade surplus. According to the 2024-25 fiscal year data, India's trade surplus with the US was $41.18 billion, further expanding from the previous year's $35.32 billion. The suspension measure will expire on July 9, and both sides hope to complete the first phase of the agreement before then.

2030 Trade Volume Goal: Doubling from $191 Billion to $500 Billion

Since the 2021-22 fiscal year, the US has been India's largest trading partner. In the 2024-25 fiscal year, the US accounted for 18% of India's total exports and 6.22% of imports, with a total bilateral trade volume of approximately $191 billion. Both sides have set a clear goal: to increase bilateral trade volume to $500 billion by 2030, achieving more than double growth.

To achieve this goal, multiple rounds of official-level consultations have been underway since March. Brendan Lynch, the US Assistant Trade Representative for South and Central Asia, visited India from March 25 to 29, meeting with Indian Minister of Commerce Piyush Goyal and other officials to lay the groundwork for the Washington talks.

Negotiation Timeline and Subsequent Arrangements

According to the current plan, both sides aim to complete the first phase of the agreement by September to October 2025. The April 23 meeting will focus on addressing unresolved technical issues and reaching consensus on the agreement's framework and timeline. In the coming months, multiple rounds of negotiations are expected to continue to ensure substantial progress within the 90-day deadline.

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