Americans Fear Recession and Inflation Under Trump’s Tariff Policies, AP-NORC Poll Reveals

As President Donald Trump nears the 100-day mark of his second term, an AP-NORC poll shows growing economic anxiety among Americans. A majority expect significant price increases due to Trump's tariff policies, with nearly half fearing a recession. Confidence in Trump's economic leadership has dropped from 59% in November 2024 to 45% in April 2025. The tariffs, targeting countries like China and Canada, are widely opposed, with 60% believing Trump has overreached. Economic indicators show instability, with declining consumer confidence and market volatility, raising concerns about personal financial stress and political implications.

Rising Price Expectations and Recession Fears

According to the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, roughly half of U.S. adults believe that Trump’s trade policies will increase prices “a lot,” while an additional 30% expect prices to rise “somewhat.” These concerns are not limited to abstract economic theory—about 60% of Americans say they are “extremely” or “very” concerned about the cost of groceries in the coming months. Nearly half express similar concern over the affordability of major purchases such as cars, appliances, and electronics.

The same poll found that about half of Americans are “extremely” or “very” worried about the possibility of a recession in the near future. This level of concern reflects a broader unease about the economic trajectory under Trump’s leadership, despite current indicators showing a 4.2% unemployment rate and moderating inflation.

Declining Confidence in Economic Leadership

Public trust in Trump’s ability to manage the economy has eroded significantly since his re-election. In November 2024, 59% of Americans expressed confidence in Trump’s economic decision-making. By April 2025, that figure had dropped to 45%, with 54% now saying they have little or no confidence in his handling of the economy—a net swing of 28 percentage points.

This decline in trust is mirrored in Trump’s overall approval ratings. A USA TODAY poll conducted in mid-April found that only 40% of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 59% disapprove. The erosion of support is particularly notable among swing voters, even as Trump retains strong backing from his core base.

Tariffs as a Flashpoint

Trump’s sweeping tariff policies have become a central point of contention. The president has imposed hundreds of billions of dollars in new import taxes, targeting countries including China and U.S. allies such as Canada. While some tariffs have been temporarily suspended, the administration has maintained a 10% baseline on many goods, with the stated goal of rebalancing trade relationships.

However, public opinion is increasingly skeptical. The AP-NORC poll found that 52% of Americans oppose imposing tariffs on all imported goods, up from 46% in January. Among those surveyed, 60% believe Trump has “gone too far” with his tariff strategy. The shift in sentiment is particularly pronounced among younger adults under 30, many of whom previously had no strong opinion on the issue.

Nicole Jones, a 32-year-old occupational therapy student from Florida, voiced her frustration: “This whole tariff war is just a losing situation not only for the American people but everybody worldwide. It’s revenge—and everybody’s losing on it.”

Economic Indicators and Market Reactions

Despite the current strength in employment and inflation metrics, other economic indicators suggest growing instability. Consumer confidence has dropped sharply, and financial markets have reacted negatively to the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s trade policies. Stock prices have declined since the start of the year, and interest rates on U.S. government bonds have risen, increasing the cost of borrowing for mortgages, auto loans, and student debt.

Corporate leaders are also responding with caution. Many CEOs have withdrawn earnings guidance for investors and are seeking exemptions from the tariffs. The unpredictability of the administration’s trade actions has led to volatility in global markets, with the International Monetary Fund warning that such uncertainty is causing businesses to delay investments and consumers to reduce spending.

Personal Financial Stress and Political Implications

The economic unease is translating into personal financial stress for many Americans. About 40% say their retirement savings are a major source of anxiety, while only 20% cite the stock market as a primary concern. The broader sentiment is one of apprehension, with many unsure how the evolving trade landscape will affect their daily lives.

Matthew Wood, a 41-year-old unemployed resident of West Liberty, Kentucky, said he’s anxious about the future. “I’m not a huge fan of it, especially considering China and going back and forth with adjustments on both ends,” he said. “Personally, it hasn’t affected me as of yet. But, generally, I don’t know how this is going to come to an end.”

Wood, who voted for Trump in 2024, has since changed his party registration from Republican to independent, citing disillusionment with the president’s approach and his close ties to billionaire adviser Elon Musk.

Partisan Divide and Shifting Sentiment

The polling data also highlights a stark partisan divide. While 70% of Republicans approve of the tariff hikes, 90% of Democrats disapprove. This polarization is reflected in broader views of the economy: Republicans, who were largely pessimistic during the Biden administration, now express more optimism, while Democrats have grown increasingly concerned about the country’s financial future.

Still, the overall trend points to a growing skepticism of Trump’s economic strategy. As the administration continues to pursue its trade agenda, public sentiment may play a critical role in shaping the political and economic landscape in the months ahead.

References

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