Brazilian Soy Farmers Thrive Amid US-China Trade War: Trump's Tariffs Shift Soybean Market to Brazil

Brazilian soybean farmers are benefiting from the U.S.-China trade war, as China imposes a 125% tariff on U.S. soybeans in response to President Trump's 145% tariff on Chinese imports. This has led to a significant drop in American agricultural exports, with Brazil capturing a dominant share of the Chinese soybean market. In 2024, Brazil exported $31 billion worth of soybeans to China, compared to $12.8 billion from the U.S. Brazil now accounts for over 70% of China's soybean imports, solidifying its position as the primary supplier to the world's largest soybean importer.

Brazil Emerges as the Top Soybean Supplier to China

In the heart of Brazil’s soy-producing region, farmers are celebrating what many see as a windfall created by geopolitical tensions. At an agricultural fair in Confresa, Mato Grosso—Brazil’s soybean capital—producers expressed optimism and gratitude for the trade dynamics that have shifted in their favor.

“China is by far the world’s largest market for soy,” said Wesley Moacir Rosa, a 50-year-old soy farmer. “The United States is provoking this fight, but it is Brazil that is going to end up benefiting.”

Indeed, the numbers tell a compelling story. In 2024, China imported $31 billion worth of soybeans from Brazil, compared to just $12.8 billion from the United States, according to official trade data from both countries. This marks a dramatic shift from pre-trade war years, when the U.S. was a leading supplier to China. By 2025, Brazil accounted for more than 70% of China’s soybean imports, solidifying its position as the world’s largest soybean exporter.

Tariffs Reshape Global Soybean Trade

The latest escalation in the U.S.-China trade war has had a direct and immediate impact on global agricultural trade flows. On April 10, the Trump administration imposed a 145% tariff on Chinese imports. China responded two days later with a 125% tariff on U.S. goods, including soybeans—on top of an existing 10% base tariff.

This effectively priced American soybeans out of the Chinese market. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, China purchased only 5,446 tons of U.S. soybeans between April 17 and 24, a sharp drop from the 72,800 tons bought earlier in the month. Meanwhile, Chinese state-affiliated media reported that Brazilian soybean shipments to the port of Zhoushan had surged nearly 50% in the same period.

Zhao Chenxin, deputy director of China’s National Development and Reform Commission, underscored the shift, stating that U.S. agricultural exports, including soy, were “easily replaceable.”

Brazilian Industry Seizes the Opportunity

Brazilian agricultural leaders have been quick to recognize and capitalize on the opportunity. Maurício Buffon, president of the Brazilian Association of Soy Farmers, noted that the country’s soy industry could gain an additional $7 billion in revenue as a result of the trade war.

“Brazil has more than enough capacity to meet a rise in Chinese demand,” Buffon said. “The Brazilian farmer has already proven himself to be extremely efficient.”

This efficiency is rooted in decades of agricultural innovation. Brazilian scientists developed soybean varieties suited to the country’s tropical climate, enabling cultivation to expand from the cooler southern states into the vast interior. Today, regions like Mato Grosso are global powerhouses of soy production, with infrastructure and logistics networks tailored to meet international demand.

U.S. Farmers Left Behind

While Brazilian farmers celebrate, their American counterparts are facing mounting challenges. Scott Gerlt, chief economist at the American Soybean Association, described the situation as “crippling.”

“It’s crippling when you lose 30 percent of your demand in a short period of time,” Gerlt said. “Farmers are very stressed.”

The U.S. soybean industry, which once relied heavily on China—purchasing roughly one out of every three or four rows of soybeans grown—has seen its market share evaporate. Despite a brief recovery in 2022, U.S. exports to China declined again in 2023 and 2024 as Brazil continued to expand its footprint.

Jim Sutter, CEO of the U.S. Soybean Export Council, acknowledged the long-term implications. “The winners were Brazilian farmers, and the losers were the Chinese consumers and the American soy farmer,” he said.

Trade Data Confirms Brazil’s Dominance

The shift in trade flows is backed by hard data. According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. soybean exports to China totaled $12.4 billion in 2024, while Brazil’s exports reached $31 billion. This disparity reflects not only the impact of tariffs but also Brazil’s growing capacity and competitiveness.

Chinese soybean traders and crushers have increasingly turned to Brazil, with some also exploring domestic alternatives to mitigate rising import costs. Analysts at the Shanghai Steel Union’s agricultural division noted that the Chinese soybean market is undergoing a “tariff-driven” supply chain restructuring.

Brazilian Stakeholders See Long-Term Gains

Brazilian industry leaders are not only focused on short-term gains but also on the potential for long-term market realignment. Ricardo Alban, president of Brazil’s National Confederation of Industry (CNI), emphasized the importance of maintaining strong ties with both the U.S. and China.

“Brazil needs to take advantage of this moment intelligently,” Alban said. “We can’t simply ignore China, nor can we turn our backs on the U.S. The U.S. is a key industrial partner, while China is a major commodities partner. We have to find a balance.”

Still, the current trade environment has clearly tilted in Brazil’s favor. With China reducing its reliance on American soybeans and Brazil stepping in to fill the gap, the South American nation is poised to maintain its dominance in the global soybean market.

Environmental Concerns Shadow Economic Gains

While the economic benefits are clear, the rapid expansion of soybean cultivation in Brazil has raised environmental concerns. Much of the growth has come at the expense of forests in the Cerrado and Amazon regions. In Confresa, large swaths of forest have been cleared to make way for soy plantations, and analysts warn that continued demand could accelerate deforestation.

Nevertheless, for many Brazilian farmers, the focus remains on the economic opportunity. At the agricultural fair in Mato Grosso, the mood was upbeat despite falling international soy prices, which have dropped from a high of $17 per bushel in 2022 to around $10 in 2025.

“We’re hopeful,” said Beatriz Costa, a fair organizer. “The trade war is really encouraging for us in agriculture.”

References

• Trump’s tariffs could spell disaster for Arkansas soybean farmers already struggling to stay afloat - Arkansas Times
• Brazilian industry leader warns of “lose-lose” trade war with U.S.
• Chinese Soybean Market Holds Up as US Imports Plummet
• What tariffs mean for American farmers – Farm Aid
• China–United States trade war - Wikipedia
• Soybeans fall as traders await US-China trade talks
• Trump tariffs live updates: No plans for Trump-Xi talks, Ackman floats China pause