Kashmir Conflict Escalates: India-Pakistan Tensions Spark US-China Proxy War Fears

Tensions between India and Pakistan have escalated after a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, killed 26 people. India blamed a Pakistan-backed group, leading to retaliatory airstrikes. Pakistan responded with drone and missile attacks. The conflict has drawn in global powers, with the U.S. supporting India and China backing Pakistan. Experts warn of a potential proxy war between the U.S. and China. Both nations have increased military posturing, raising fears of regional destabilization and nuclear conflict.

India-Pakistan Hostilities Intensify

The current crisis was sparked by a terrorist attack on April 22 in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, which killed 26 Indian and foreign tourists. India blamed the attack on a Pakistan-backed proxy group, prompting retaliatory airstrikes on targets in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Punjab. In response, Pakistan launched drone and missile attacks on Indian military installations in Jammu, Rajasthan, and Punjab on May 8. India’s Russian-made S-400 air defense system intercepted the incoming threats, marking its first known combat deployment.

According to Pakistan’s Ministry of Information, up to 50 Indian soldiers were killed in the exchanges, though India has not confirmed these figures. Pakistani officials also reported civilian casualties, including a two-year-old girl, due to Indian shelling. India, meanwhile, suspended civilian flights at 24 airports and increased troop deployments along the Line of Control (LoC), where an estimated 750,000 Indian personnel are already stationed.

China Steps Up Support for Pakistan

China has emerged as a vocal and active supporter of Pakistan amid the escalating conflict. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, in a phone call with his Pakistani counterpart Ishaq Dar on April 27, expressed strong backing for Pakistan’s demand for an impartial investigation into the Pahalgam attack. Wang emphasized that China “fully understands Pakistan’s legitimate security concerns” and supports its efforts to safeguard sovereignty and security.

Beijing has also provided military assistance, including missile deliveries, to bolster Pakistan’s defense capabilities. Chinese media and officials have reiterated that China, as Pakistan’s “ironclad friend,” will not remain passive if the conflict escalates into a full-scale war. China’s strategic interests in Pakistan, particularly its investments in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the Gwadar Port in Balochistan, are seen as key motivations behind its stance.

United States Aligns with India, Urges Restraint

While the United States has not taken direct military action, it has expressed support for India’s position. President Donald Trump stated on May 8 that he hopes India and Pakistan can “work it out,” adding, “If I can do anything to help, I will be there.” However, U.S. officials have downplayed the likelihood of a broader war. Senator J.D. Vance remarked, “Our hope and our expectation are that this is not going to spiral into a broader regional war or, God forbid, a nuclear conflict.”

Experts note that U.S.-India relations have deepened over the past two decades, particularly in defense and strategic cooperation. In contrast, U.S. engagement with Pakistan has waned since the withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, reducing Islamabad’s relevance in Washington’s foreign policy calculus.

Proxy War Fears and Strategic Alignments

Analysts warn that the Kashmir conflict could become a new front in the ongoing U.S.-China rivalry. Max Abrahms, a terrorism expert at Northeastern University, stated that the India-Pakistan conflict “may emerge as a proxy war where India is backed by the U.S. and Pakistan is backed by China.” Sadanand Dhume of the American Enterprise Institute echoed this view, noting that “China is joined at the hip with Pakistan, whereas the U.S. and India have grown increasingly close.”

China’s involvement is not limited to diplomacy and arms supplies. Beijing has strategic concerns about India’s opposition to its infrastructure projects in the disputed Gilgit-Baltistan region, which India claims as part of its territory. Chinese officials have also condemned terrorism in all forms but have stopped short of criticizing Pakistan directly.

Domestic Pressures and Military Posturing

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has vowed a forceful response, declaring that the perpetrators of the Pahalgam attack will be pursued “till the ends of the earth.” India’s military strategy appears focused on targeting terrorist infrastructure while avoiding civilian casualties, according to Chietigj Bajpaee of Chatham House.

In Pakistan, the military—long a dominant force in national politics—is under pressure to respond decisively. Pakistani officials have labeled India’s strikes as an “act of war” and claimed to have shot down Indian fighter jets. The military’s assertive posture is seen as essential to maintaining its legitimacy and avoiding perceptions of weakness.

Regional and Nuclear Concerns

The conflict has raised fears of a wider regional destabilization. Yigal Carmon, president of the Middle East Media Research Institute, warned that an escalation could lead to the dismantling of Pakistan and have repercussions in Afghanistan, Iran, and China. He also noted that instability in Pakistan’s Balochistan province, where China has invested heavily, could threaten Beijing’s strategic interests.

India and Pakistan possess a combined estimated 342 nuclear warheads. While both nations maintain doctrines of deterrence, the risk of miscalculation remains high. The international community, including China, has called for restraint. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian urged both countries to act in the interest of “peace and stability” and reiterated China’s willingness to play a “constructive role” in de-escalation efforts.

Kashmir Conflict Escalates: India-Pakistan Tensions Spark US-China Proxy War Fears

Key Updates

Chinese PL-15E Missile Debris Found in India After India-Pakistan Aerial Clash; Nations Move to De-escalate

Pakistan Accuses India of Missile Launch into Indian Territory, Red Alert Issued in Amritsar Amid Rising Tensions