NFL 2025 Season Projections: Bills, Eagles, Chiefs, and Ravens Top with 11½ Wins; Commanders' 9½ Wins Mark Highest Since 2001
Sportsbooks have released projected win totals for the 2025 NFL season. The Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, and Baltimore Ravens lead with 11½ wins each. The Tennessee Titans, New York Jets, New York Giants, and Cleveland Browns have the lowest projections at 5½ wins. The Washington Commanders are projected at 9½ wins, their highest since 2001, indicating increased expectations. The Los Angeles Rams also have a 9½ win projection, while the San Francisco 49ers lead their division with 10½ wins. These projections reflect team strengths, offseason changes, and schedule difficulties.
Top Projected Teams: Bills, Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens at 11½ Wins
According to multiple sportsbooks, including FanDuel, DraftKings, and ESPN BET, four teams share the highest projected win total for the 2025 NFL season: the Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, and Baltimore Ravens, each set at 11½ wins.
The Buffalo Bills, fresh off their fifth consecutive AFC East title, are projected to continue their dominance. Despite a schedule that includes matchups against playoff-caliber teams such as the Chiefs, Eagles, and Ravens, analysts like Warren Sharp have ranked Buffalo’s 2025 schedule among the league’s five easiest. This projection reflects both the team’s recent consistency and the perceived strength of their roster heading into the season.
The Philadelphia Eagles, who reached the divisional round last season, also enter 2025 with high expectations. Their 11½ win total reflects confidence in their veteran core and coaching stability. Similarly, the Kansas City Chiefs, perennial Super Bowl contenders and led by Patrick Mahomes, remain a top-tier team in the eyes of oddsmakers.
The Baltimore Ravens round out the top tier. After a 12-5 campaign in 2024 and a divisional round playoff appearance, the Ravens are projected to maintain their elite status. Their +700 Super Bowl odds are second-best in the league, and their 11½ win total underscores the strength of their roster, which includes MVP-caliber quarterback Lamar Jackson and a defense that ranked among the league’s best last season.
Commanders Reach 9½ Wins — Highest Since 2001
The Washington Commanders are projected at 9½ wins for 2025, marking their highest preseason win total since 2001. That year, under head coach Marty Schottenheimer, Washington finished 8-8 in a 16-game season. The current projection reflects a significant shift in expectations for a franchise that has struggled with consistency over the past two decades.
Washington finished 12-5 in 2024, and while oddsmakers expect some regression, the 9½ win total still places them in the top half of the league. The team’s offseason acquisition of wide receiver Deebo Samuel and the return of key contributors have bolstered optimism. However, a challenging road schedule — including games against the Packers, Eagles, Chiefs, Chargers, and Vikings — tempers expectations.
According to power ratings cited by The Washington Post, the Commanders are projected to be a half-point better than an average team on a neutral field. This places them around the league’s midpoint, but their 9½ win total suggests a belief in their ability to remain competitive in a tougher 2025 landscape.
Lowest Projected Teams: Titans, Jets, Giants, Browns at 5½ Wins
At the bottom of the win total projections are the Tennessee Titans, New York Jets, New York Giants, and Cleveland Browns, each set at 5½ wins.
The Titans and Browns are projected to be among the league’s weakest teams, with power ratings indicating they are expected to be 4½ and 6 points worse per game, respectively, than an average team on a neutral field. These projections reflect both roster concerns and difficult schedules.
The New York Giants, who opened with a win total of 3½ at ESPN BET, saw their line move to 5½ after heavy betting on the over. Despite the increase, the Giants remain among the lowest-projected teams. The betting movement suggests some optimism among fans and bettors, but the low total reflects skepticism about the team’s ability to rebound from a disappointing 2024 season.
The New York Jets, still searching for stability at quarterback and consistency on both sides of the ball, also enter 2025 with tempered expectations. Their 5½ win total places them in the league’s bottom tier, alongside their crosstown rivals.
Other Notable Projections
The Los Angeles Rams are projected at 9½ wins, matching the Commanders. Under head coach Sean McVay, the Rams have cleared this total in three of the last four seasons, including a 10-win campaign in 2024. Despite a difficult defensive schedule, the Rams remain a playoff contender in the NFC West.
Within their division, the San Francisco 49ers lead with a projected 10½ wins, followed by the Arizona Cardinals at 8½ and the Seattle Seahawks at 7½. The 49ers’ projection places them just behind the league’s top four teams, reflecting their continued status as NFC contenders.
The Detroit Lions, while not among the top four in win totals, are projected to be one of the league’s strongest teams based on point spread metrics. Their win total sits at 10½, but strength-of-schedule adjustments place them among the top three teams in expected performance per game.
League-Wide Context
The 2025 win total projections offer a snapshot of how oddsmakers view the NFL landscape heading into the season. These numbers are shaped by a combination of factors, including offseason acquisitions, coaching changes, injuries, and strength of schedule.
While the Bills, Eagles, Chiefs, and Ravens are expected to lead the league, the Commanders’ rise to 9½ wins signals a potential shift in the NFC East. Conversely, the Titans, Jets, Giants, and Browns face uphill battles, with projections placing them at the bottom of the standings.
As the full 2025 schedule is set to be released on May 14, these win totals provide an early framework for expectations and betting markets across the league.
