Cardinal Parolin's Papal Bid Transforms into Kingmaker Role as Cardinal Prevost Becomes Pope Leo XIV

Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, initially favored to succeed Pope Francis, lost momentum in the 2025 papal conclave, leading to American Cardinal Robert Prevost's election as Pope Leo XIV. Prevost's pastoral background and support from the Global South and Europe were pivotal. Parolin withdrew his candidacy, endorsing Prevost, which helped secure the necessary votes. Cardinal Timothy Dolan's strategic alliances also played a role. Prevost's election marks a shift towards pastoral leadership, with his first address emphasizing peace and reconciliation.

Parolin’s Early Lead and Italian Bloc Support

Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s Secretary of State and a seasoned diplomat, entered the conclave as the clear favorite. According to reports from The Wall Street Journal and other outlets, Parolin secured over 40 votes in the first round of balloting on Wednesday, May 7, 2025, buoyed by the support of the 17 Italian cardinals—the largest national group among the 133 electors.

Betting markets reflected this early confidence, placing Parolin at the top of the odds, followed by Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle. Many Italian cardinals reportedly believed it was time for the papacy to return to Italy after nearly five decades of non-Italian pontiffs, beginning with the election of John Paul II in 1978.

A Stalled Campaign and Emerging Doubts

Despite his initial lead, Parolin’s campaign began to falter by the third scrutiny. Italian media reported that he had reached 49 votes, still short of the 89 required for a two-thirds majority. His inability to consolidate further support was attributed to several factors, including internal divisions among Italian candidates—such as Cardinals Pizzaballa, Zuppi, and Filoni—and a lack of pastoral experience, which many cardinals viewed as essential in the post-Francis era.

Parolin, a career diplomat, was seen by some as too entrenched in Vatican bureaucracy. According to The Wall Street Journal, some of his detractors actively worked to scatter votes among other candidates to prevent him from reaching the threshold.

The Rise of Robert Prevost

As Parolin’s momentum stalled, Cardinal Robert Prevost, a Chicago-born Augustinian who had served as a missionary and bishop in Peru, began to gain traction. Prevost’s appeal lay in his pastoral background and his leadership of the Pontifical Commission for Latin America. His candidacy resonated with cardinals from the Global South and parts of Europe, who were seeking a pope with both missionary experience and a commitment to doctrinal clarity.

By Thursday morning, Prevost’s support had grown significantly. Reports from The Daily Beast and Yahoo News indicate that his vote count surged past 100 in the fourth round of voting, securing his election. American Cardinal Blase Cupich noted that “at lunch, things were getting clarified,” suggesting that informal discussions during breaks played a key role in consolidating support for Prevost.

Parolin Steps Aside

In a pivotal moment, Parolin reportedly recognized that he could not surpass the 50-vote mark and chose to step aside. According to Mundo América and other sources, he withdrew his candidacy and lent his support to Prevost, effectively tipping the balance. This act of deference was seen as instrumental in Prevost’s final tally, which exceeded the required two-thirds majority.

Parolin, as the highest-ranking cardinal present, was the one to formally ask Prevost if he accepted his election. “I accept,” Prevost replied, taking the name Leo XIV.

Strategic Alliances and the Role of Cardinal Dolan

Behind Prevost’s rise was a network of strategic alliances. Cardinal Timothy Dolan of New York, a prominent figure in the conservative wing of the Church, reportedly played a key role in rallying support for Prevost once it became clear that Parolin’s path was blocked. According to reports from Derecha Diario, Dolan’s endorsement helped consolidate votes from American and conservative cardinals.

The same reports suggest that Dolan’s support may have been influenced by conversations involving U.S. political figures, including Senator J.D. Vance and former President Donald Trump. While the extent of political influence remains speculative, the narrative underscores the complex interplay of ecclesiastical and geopolitical considerations in the conclave.

A New Direction for the Church

Pope Leo XIV’s election marks a significant moment for the Catholic Church. Though born in the United States, Prevost’s decades of service in Latin America and his Augustinian roots give him a unique global perspective. His first words from the loggia emphasized a call for “a peace that is disarmed and disarming,” echoing themes of reconciliation and humility.

In a letter published in Il Giornale di Vicenza, Parolin congratulated the new pope and praised his understanding of contemporary challenges. He also acknowledged Prevost’s leadership in Chiclayo, Peru, highlighting the pastoral qualities that ultimately swayed the conclave.

A Conclave of Contrasts

While dramatized portrayals of conclaves often emphasize intrigue and division, Cardinal Vincent Nichols of England and Wales described the actual atmosphere as “fraternal.” He noted that cardinals dined together without forming pressure groups, suggesting that the decision-making process, though complex, remained rooted in collegiality and discernment.

Still, the shift from Parolin to Prevost illustrates the dynamic nature of papal elections. What began as a seemingly straightforward path to an Italian papacy evolved into a broader consensus around a candidate who could bridge continents, traditions, and theological currents.

Cardinal Parolin's Papal Bid Transforms into Kingmaker Role as Cardinal Prevost Becomes Pope Leo XIV

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