In 2025, the US-China trade war escalated: Boeing faces setbacks, Airbus gains, and a buying spree in the US consumer market causes global market upheaval.

TaiwanBusiness04/21 19:00
In 2025, the US-China trade war escalated: Boeing faces setbacks, Airbus gains, and a buying spree in the US consumer market causes global market upheaval.

In April 2025, the US-China trade war escalated, and Boeing was forced to send back the 737 MAX aircraft intended for China to the United States due to punitive tariffs, which benefited Airbus in the Chinese market. The expectation of high tariffs sparked a buying frenzy among American consumers, resulting in a 1.4% increase in retail sales in March. Global stock markets were volatile, with significant capital movements in Asian stocks. The Chinese stock market showed little reaction, but GDP growth reached 5.4%, surpassing expectations and indicating short-term resilience.

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04/21 19:00

In 2025, the US-China trade war escalated: Boeing faces setbacks, Airbus gains, and a buying spree in the US consumer market causes global market upheaval.

In April 2025, the US-China trade war escalated, and Boeing was forced to send back the 737 MAX aircraft intended for China to the United States due to punitive tariffs, which benefited Airbus in the Chinese market. The expectation of high tariffs sparked a buying frenzy among American consumers, resulting in a 1.4% increase in retail sales in March. Global stock markets were volatile, with significant capital movements in Asian stocks. The Chinese stock market showed little reaction, but GDP growth reached 5.4%, surpassing expectations and indicating short-term resilience.

Boeing Faces Delivery Crisis, Airbus Market Share Rises

Boeing's operations in the Chinese market are at a critical recovery phase but have been hit again by the US-China tariff war. The 737 MAX aircraft, originally scheduled for delivery to China's Xiamen Airlines, was painted and parked at the Zhoushan delivery center but was forced to fly back to Boeing's base in Seattle due to punitive tariffs of up to 125% imposed by China on US imports. According to Reuters, this is not an isolated case, with at least three 737 MAX 8 aircraft being recalled.

In its fourth-quarter 2024 financial report, Boeing warned that the delivery plans for the Chinese market are "highly uncertain." Currently, China's three major airline groups had planned to receive nearly 180 Boeing aircraft between 2025 and 2027, but these orders now face the risk of delays or cancellations. Boeing has long relied on the Chinese market for over 10% of its revenue, and if Chinese airlines turn to European suppliers, it will cause a structural impact on its global market share.

According to Simple Flying, Boeing currently holds about 40% of the global market share, while Airbus holds 60%. In the worst-case scenario, Airbus's market share could rise to 75% to 80%. Analysts point out that the retaliatory tariffs faced by Boeing are much higher than those for Airbus, further weakening its competitiveness in the international market.

US Consumer Market Sees Buying Frenzy, Short-term Retail Data Shines

After the Trump administration announced tariffs of up to 145% and even 245% on Chinese goods, US consumers showed significant "panic buying" behavior. Data from the US Department of Commerce shows that retail sales in March 2025 rose by 1.4% from the previous month, the largest increase since January 2023. Automobile sales grew by 5.3%, electronics and appliances rose by 2.4% and 3.3% respectively, and dining consumption also increased by 1.8%.

In places like Chicago and Virginia, consumers are snapping up imported goods such as iPhones, Samsung TVs, washing machines, and cars, fearing future price hikes. Sales on platforms for second-hand and refurbished equipment like Back Market have tripled, reflecting increased consumer sensitivity to prices. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell warned that this buying frenzy could trigger "higher inflation and slower growth," potentially leading to stagflation risks.

Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan survey, pointed out that this phenomenon is similar to the early stages of the 2018 trade war when consumers hoarded appliances to avoid tariff costs. Analysts generally believe that this consumer boom may be a short-term phenomenon, with potential subsequent consumer fatigue and economic slowdown.

Global Stock Markets Volatile, Asian Stock Funds Flow Dramatically

The escalation of the trade war has caused global market turmoil. US stocks, bonds, and the dollar have all fallen simultaneously, with investor risk aversion rising and gold prices breaking through $3,400 per ounce. In Asia, capital flows have shown significant divergence. According to statistics from China Trust Investment, last week saw a net outflow of $3.5 billion from emerging Asian stock markets, with Taiwan stocks being oversold by $2.29 billion, and Indonesia and South Korea seeing outflows of $1.26 billion and $1 billion respectively.

However, Indian and Philippine stock markets have attracted capital inflows against the trend, with India receiving $1.26 billion in buying in a single week, and the stock market rising by 4.52%. This indicates that market funds are seeking relatively stable and lower policy risk investment targets.

China's Economic Data Shines Short-term, Market Reaction Tepid

Despite the US imposing tariffs of up to 245% on Chinese goods as of mid-April, the Chinese stock market has reacted relatively tepidly. The CSI 300 index rose by 0.6% last week. Data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics shows that GDP in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 5.4% year-on-year, higher than the market expectation of 5.2%. The annual growth rate of exports in March turned positive from -3.0% to 12.4%, retail sales increased by 5.9% year-on-year, and industrial production grew by 7.7%.

Analysts point out that this strong data may result from companies and overseas buyers placing orders in advance before the tariffs were implemented. UBS and Goldman Sachs both predict that China's annual GDP growth may slow to 3.4%, and once export momentum fades, the impact of tariffs will gradually become apparent.

The Chinese government has stated that it will lower reserve requirements and interest rates at an appropriate time and promote high-tech investment and policies to replace old with new to stimulate domestic demand. The high-tech industry's contribution to GDP is estimated to reach 24 trillion yuan, accounting for 16.8%, becoming a key focus for future economic support.

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