With the United States imposing a 20% tariff on Chinese laptops, leading brands are shifting to Southeast Asian supply chains, and as a result, shipments could decline by 2.1% in 2025.

The United States has imposed a 20% tariff on Chinese-made laptops, prompting global laptop brands to speed up moving their supply chains to Southeast Asia. However, if the U.S. imposes an additional 10% to 20% tariff on Southeast Asian laptops, market confidence might take a hit. According to a TrendForce report, if negotiations fall through, the annual growth rate of laptop shipments by brands in 2025 could plummet from 1.4% to -2.1%, highlighting how tariff policies affect the global supply chain and market demand.

Chinese Laptops Face 20% Tariff: Brands Turn to Southeast Asia to Mitigate Risks

Starting from the end of 2024, the United States will impose a 20% import tariff on laptops made in China, serving as a catalyst for the restructuring of the global laptop supply chain. According to a TrendForce report, the U.S. currently maintains a 0% tariff on laptops imported from Southeast Asia, prompting brands to accelerate shipments from countries like Vietnam and Thailand to the U.S. market. American brands such as HP and Dell, having established production capacities in Southeast Asia early on, possess greater flexibility in capacity adjustment and can quickly replenish North American channel inventories within the 90-day grace period.

In contrast, non-American brands like Lenovo, Asus, and Acer have not fully developed their Southeast Asian supply chains, having limited room for short-term adjustments. DIGITIMES points out that by the first quarter of 2025, the proportion of laptop production capacity outside China remains below 5% for most brands, with Apple's non-China capacity even below 0.1%, resulting in a gap in non-China shipments of over 48% in the U.S. market.

Pre-shipment Stockpiling Drives Temporary Growth

Facing tariff uncertainties, laptop brands are increasing their stockpiling in advance starting from the end of 2024. TrendForce data shows that the year-on-year growth rate of laptop shipments in the fourth quarter of 2024 reached 5.1%, further increasing to 7.2% in the first quarter of 2025. This wave of pre-shipment stockpiling is mainly to meet U.S. market demand and mitigate tariff risks, especially driven by the commercial PC market's replacement cycle, with brands like Dell, Lenovo, and Apple achieving quarterly shipments of 3.92 million, 3.15 million, and 2.61 million units in the U.S., respectively.

However, this growth is seen as a temporary phenomenon. TrendForce has revised the 2025 annual growth rate forecast for laptop brand shipments from 3.6% down to 1.4%, reflecting the impact of overall economic weakness and increasing policy risks.

Potential Tariffs on Southeast Asia Could Impact Market Confidence

Brands are closely monitoring the progress of tariff negotiations between the U.S. and Southeast Asian countries. If the U.S. ultimately imposes a 10% to 20% tariff on Southeast Asian laptops, although potentially lower than China's 20% rate, it would still increase cost pressures for brands. TrendForce notes that if negotiations break down and policy risks expand, price hikes and weak demand for laptops may become unavoidable, potentially reversing the 2025 annual growth rate for laptop brand shipments to -2.1%.

This forecast reflects the market's high sensitivity to uncertainties in policy. Brands and supply chain operators are actively reviewing cost structures and seeking more diverse production locations, including India and Mexico. For example, Asus has established a laptop assembly line in Manesar, India, and is considering encouraging global suppliers to set up operations locally to enhance local production capabilities.

U.S. Market Position Critical, Risk of Price Increases Persist

The U.S. is the largest single market for laptops globally, accounting for about 30% of total global demand. Even though a temporary tariff delay may aid brand shipments in the short term, TrendForce expects a high likelihood of end-user price increases, which could suppress consumer and commercial upgrade demand. If China further imposes tariffs on key components imported from the U.S., it would further drive up the overall production costs, forcing brands to adopt more conservative production and procurement strategies.

Additionally, air and sea freight costs are also factors for brands to consider. According to industry observations, air freight prices from Asia to North America remain high, and while transshipment is cheaper, it takes longer, requiring brands to balance cost and timeliness.

Restructuring of the Supply Chain Still Underway

Although some brands have begun shifting production to Southeast Asia and India, the overall restructuring of the supply chain is still in its early stages. DIGITIMES notes that HP and Dell have already shifted about 30% of their production capacity to Thailand and Vietnam, with plans to increase by another 3 to 5 percentage points starting in the second quarter. Lenovo is also advancing its non-China capacity to a 10% share. Taiwanese brands like Acer and Asus are turning to Vietnam and Thailand, respectively, but their non-China capacity remains low, making it challenging to fully replace Chinese capacity in the near term.

References

• TrendForce：筆電品牌因關稅提前備貨 2025年售價與出貨量恐有影響 - 科技新聞 - PChome Online 新聞
• 筆電品牌廠面臨關稅風暴！ 研調宣布下修出貨年增率至1.4%
• Notebook Industry Remains Cautious Amid Tariff Negotiations; 2025 Brand Shipments Growth Revised Down to 1.4%
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