Donald Trump's recent tariff policy raises investor worries: Startups face major challenges

Former U.S. President Trump, during his second term in office, pushed for a new round of tariff policies, imposing tariffs as high as 145% on Chinese goods and closing the duty-free loophole for small packages, putting pressure on the venture capital industry and startups. These policies disrupted the global supply chain, impacting fundraising, product pricing, and market expansion, undermining investment confidence, delaying plans for IPOs, and potentially causing some startups to close. Venture capital firms have adjusted their strategies by extending investment cycles and shifting to secondary market transactions, while some industries, such as AI and nearshore manufacturing, remain attractive.
Key Updates
04/22 19:02
Donald Trump's recent tariff policy raises investor worries: Startups face major challenges
Former U.S. President Trump, during his second term in office, pushed for a new round of tariff policies, imposing tariffs as high as 145% on Chinese goods and closing the duty-free loophole for small packages, putting pressure on the venture capital industry and startups. These policies disrupted the global supply chain, impacting fundraising, product pricing, and market expansion, undermining investment confidence, delaying plans for IPOs, and potentially causing some startups to close. Venture capital firms have adjusted their strategies by extending investment cycles and shifting to secondary market transactions, while some industries, such as AI and nearshore manufacturing, remain attractive.
Overview of Tariff Policy: From "Reciprocal Tariffs" to Broad Expansion
In early 2025, the Trump administration announced a series of tariff measures targeting China and other trade partners. According to public data, these measures include:
- Imposing tariffs averaging up to 145% on Chinese goods;
- A 25% tariff on all imported cars and parts;
- Closing the "de minimis" exemption loophole, imposing a 30% uniform tariff on parcels under $800;
- A 25% tariff on steel and aluminum products;
- A 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods that do not comply with USMCA standards.
The rapid implementation and broad scope of these policies, along with the lack of a transparent exemption application mechanism, make it difficult for businesses to predict future costs and supply chain risks.
Investor Anxiety: Capital Flow and IPO Market Obstruction
According to a report by WIRED, several venture capital partners have indicated that Trump's tariff policy has become a central topic in recent investment meetings. Tom Drummond, a partner at Heavybit, stated, "No one knows what will happen next." He noted that startups relying on cross-border trade, especially in hardware, clean tech, and biotech industries, will be the first to be affected.
PitchBook data shows that in the first quarter of 2025, the proportion of U.S. capital flowing into venture deals in Europe and China fell to 47%, a drop of four percentage points from the fourth quarter of 2024. This reflects international investors' concerns about the uncertainty of U.S. policy.
Additionally, EY statistics indicate that the number of U.S. IPOs in 2024 was 176, a significant increase from 2023 and 2022. However, a KPMG report noted that several startups, including Chime, StubHub, and Klarna, have postponed their listing plans in early 2025. Chip Hazard, a partner at Flybridge Capital, warned entrepreneurs in a letter: "If you are fundraising, complete the transaction as soon as possible."
Practical Challenges for Startups: Supply Chain, Capital, and Market Confidence
For startups, the challenges posed by tariff policies extend beyond rising costs. Many companies rely on components and manufacturing capabilities from China or Southeast Asia, and with increased tariffs, they must reassess their supply chain strategies. Drummond mentioned that one of his IoT platform companies is considering shifting suppliers to Vietnam.
Charles Hudson, a partner at Precursor Ventures, stated that several e-commerce startups he invested in might be "severely affected," but it is currently difficult to formulate response strategies because "the logic and timing of the tariffs seem to be known only to the president."
Furthermore, according to a survey by Small Business for America’s Future, 72% of small businesses reported that the volatility and uncertainty of tariff policies have caused a "whiplash effect" on their long-term planning, stalling capital expenditures and expansion plans.
Venture Capital Strategy Shift: Extending Investment Cycles and Shifting to Secondary Markets
Facing an unstable policy environment, venture capital firms are adjusting their investment strategies. Precursor plans to extend the investment cycle of its fifth fund from two years to three years to allow more time to observe market changes. Hudson predicts that in the next five years, the main exit strategy for venture capital funds will shift towards secondary market transactions rather than IPOs or mergers and acquisitions.
Drummond also noted that venture capitalists are becoming more cautious, and the past strategy of "holding on" to investments until IPO is no longer applicable, with a preference now for early share sales to ensure liquidity.
Certain Industries Remain Attractive: AI and Nearshoring Favored
Despite the overall market gloom, some investors remain optimistic about the potential of specific industries. AI, defense technology, and cybersecurity sectors, which naturally avoid Chinese supply chains, have become "safe havens." Startups related to logistics and nearshoring have also benefited from policy shifts.
Flybridge's Hazard stated that if AI companies can help clients improve operational efficiency and revenue, they will remain valuable during economic uncertainty. According to KPMG, the U.S. AI industry continues to attract the most global capital, with OpenAI and Anthropic raising over $43 billion in the first quarter of 2025.
Institutional Response to the Startup Fundraising Environment
In Taiwan, in response to changes in the international trade environment, the Legislative Yuan passed amendments to the "Industrial Innovation Act" in April 2025, relaxing the establishment years and investment thresholds for startups and increasing personal investment tax deductions. This move is seen as a "timely relief" under the pressure of U.S. reciprocal tariffs, helping to attract more capital into the startup industry.
References
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