U.S. Retailers Face Potential Shortages as 145% Tariff on Chinese Imports Halts Shipments

A 145% tariff on nearly all Chinese imports, imposed by the Trump administration, has sharply reduced U.S.-bound shipments from China. The Port of Los Angeles expects a 33% drop in freight arrivals by early May. Retailers, especially small and mid-sized businesses, are canceling orders, risking product shortages similar to the COVID-era supply chain crisis. The National Retail Federation predicts a 20% import drop if tariffs persist. The logistics industry faces reduced workloads and freight rates, while exports also decline due to retaliatory tariffs, affecting U.S. agriculture and manufacturing sectors.

Freight Arrivals Plummet at Port of Los Angeles

The Port of Los Angeles, a critical gateway for trans-Pacific trade, is experiencing a rapid decline in incoming cargo. According to data from Port Optimizer, the number of freight vessels scheduled to arrive for the week ending May 10 is expected to be down 33% compared to the same period last year. This drop follows a broader trend: Wabtec Corp. reports that only 16 vessels carrying 74,925 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) are expected the following week, a 33% year-over-year decrease.

Port Executive Director Gene Seroka warned the Los Angeles Board of Harbor Commissioners that the situation is deteriorating quickly. “In two weeks’ time, arrivals will drop by 35% as essentially all shipments out of China for major retailers and manufacturers have ceased,” Seroka said. He attributed the decline to the 145% tariff on Chinese goods and a 10% across-the-board tariff on imports from nearly all other countries.

Retailers Cancel Orders, Inventory Dwindles

The tariff shock has prompted many U.S. companies to cancel shipments from China altogether. Chinese vendors report that major American retailers, including Target, have halted orders. One vendor, who supplies press-on nails to U.S. stores, said her products are ready to ship but remain stuck in China, with no expectation of delivery in the first half of the year.

Retailers had initially rushed to front-load shipments ahead of the tariff implementation, but that strategy was not feasible for smaller businesses. Jessica Berger, CEO of pet product company Bundle x Joy, was unable to stop a shipment of dog toys before the tariffs took effect. Now, she faces a $180,000 tariff bill. “Luckily for me, I have the resources, but six months ago, I wouldn’t have. It would potentially have put me out of business,” Berger said.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) projects a 20% drop in imports during the second half of 2025 if the tariffs remain in place. Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president of supply chain and customs policy, noted that retailers are currently making critical holiday season purchasing decisions. “It’s a challenge for folks to figure out how to properly order and price with all the uncertainty that’s out there on the tariffs,” he said.

Supply Chain Disruptions Echo COVID-Era Chaos

The sudden halt in shipments is already causing ripple effects across the supply chain. Sean Stein, president of the U.S.-China Business Council, warned that thousands of containers could soon be left unclaimed at U.S. ports, clogging terminals and delaying other shipments. “We could have thousands of containers stuck gumming up the port,” Stein said. “It’s going to be a train wreck.”

The situation is drawing comparisons to the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, when supply chain bottlenecks led to widespread product shortages. “Like back during COVID where we had shortages of toilet paper, we are going to start seeing that in more and more goods,” Stein added.

Products most at risk of disappearing from store shelves include low-cost footwear, apparel, toys, and electronics — categories heavily reliant on Chinese manufacturing. Perishable goods such as apple juice and fish, which are difficult to stockpile, are also vulnerable.

Economic Fallout for Logistics and Trucking

The downturn in port activity is expected to have a cascading effect on the broader logistics industry. With fewer containers arriving, truckers who typically haul goods from the port are seeing reduced workloads. “If you’re a trucker and you’re hauling four or five containers today, you may haul two or three in the future,” Seroka said. Casual dock workers are also facing reduced hours and overtime.

Dean Croke, principal analyst at DAT Freight and Analytics, said the drop in port volumes will flood the trucking market with excess capacity, driving down freight rates. “It may take well into the second half of this year before truckload volumes recover,” Croke said. He added that the timing is particularly damaging, as this is typically the season when shipping volumes begin to rise in preparation for back-to-school and holiday sales.

Export Volumes Also Declining

While imports are taking the brunt of the tariff impact, exports are also suffering. In March, the Port of Los Angeles moved 123,000 TEUs in outbound cargo, a 15% decline from the previous year. This marked the fourth consecutive month of year-over-year export declines. Seroka noted that retaliatory tariffs from China and other countries are hitting U.S. agriculture, heavy-duty manufacturing, and information technology sectors particularly hard.

Retailers Warn of Holiday Shortages

Retailers are increasingly concerned about the availability of goods for key shopping periods, including the Fourth of July and Christmas. “They’re making their holiday buying decisions now,” said Gold of the NRF. The uncertainty surrounding tariff negotiations is making it difficult for companies to plan inventory and pricing strategies.

The White House has reportedly taken notice of the potential for empty shelves during major holidays. While President Trump has said he is considering reducing the tariffs, no formal action has been taken. Chinese officials have denied that any formal trade talks are currently underway.

References

• Traffic at the Port of Los Angeles set to plunge amid tariffs
• Product shortages and empty store shelves loom with falling shipments from China
• Trump’s trade war has already sparked a massive cancellation of shipments from China to the U.S.
• Product shortages and empty store shelves loom with falling shipments from China