After a 2,800-point rebound, US stocks face pressure from the seasonal moving average: AI demand, tariff policies, and US debt maturity are drawing market attention.

Recently, the US stock market rebounded by about 2,800 points, but it is approaching the resistance of the quarterly moving average, and market sentiment is cautious. Strong AI demand indicates that chip demand is outpacing supply, but tariff policy pressures are impacting the earnings reports of tech giants. The upcoming maturity of $6.5 trillion in US national debt has sparked debates on liquidity and debt sustainability. The trade and domestic policies from the Trump era are affecting investment confidence, boosting the performance of defense, aerospace, and cybersecurity stocks.

Strong Rebound in U.S. Stocks, Quarterly Resistance Emerges

According to market data, the four major U.S. stock indices have recently rebounded significantly, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 1.2%, the Nasdaq up 2.7%, the S&P 500 up 2.0%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surging 5.6%. The Taiwan stock market was also driven by the U.S. stock market, with the weighted index rising 477 points last week, a gain of 2.4%, turning the weekly moving average red and successfully standing above the monthly moving average. However, market analysis indicates that U.S. stocks are currently approaching the quarterly resistance area, and whether they can break through remains to be seen.

Strong AI Demand, but Tariffs Impact Financial Performance

Demand in the AI sector continues to explode, especially in the inference chip market. Morgan Stanley analyst Moore pointed out that the current market demand for inference chips has far exceeded supply by hundreds of billions of dollars, and has raised Nvidia's 2026 revenue estimate by 10.7% and earnings per share (EPS) by 11.9%. Moore believes that unless there is a dramatic change in the overall economic environment, the revenue momentum of the inference market is expected to continue.

However, tariff policies are putting pressure on the financial reports of tech companies. Companies like Meta and Google have already revised down their 2025 revenue and EPS expectations, with Meta's revenue estimate lowered by more than $2 billion. Analysts point out that tariffs may further impact corporate growth expectations by increasing costs and suppressing demand.

$6.5 Trillion in U.S. Debt Maturity Draws Market Attention

Discussions about the scale of U.S. debt maturity are heating up. According to data, the total U.S. debt maturing in 2025 is about $9.2 trillion, with approximately 70% concentrated in the first half of the year, and the amount due in June is about $2 trillion, not $6.5 trillion in a single month. Experts point out that the U.S. government mainly refinances through "rolling over debt," and the risk of default remains low, but if market liquidity tightens or political deadlock worsens, it could still bring pressure.

In addition, analysts point out that the U.S. annual fiscal spending exceeds revenue, and the budget deficit continues to expand. If future tariffs lead to worsening inflation, it may force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, further increasing the debt interest burden and putting pressure on the U.S. debt market.

Trump Policies Affect Investment Confidence

The Trump administration's reciprocal tariff policy, imposing tariffs on over 180 countries worldwide, with a rate up to 32% on Taiwan, has caused global market turmoil. The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in April fell to 68.21 points, a new low for the year, with the "investment timing for the next six months" indicator plummeting by 11.25 points.

Additionally, Trump's trade war and immigration policies have raised concerns about economic growth and inflation. Analysts point out that Trump's tariff policies, pushed through executive orders, have impacted the global trade system and shaken market confidence in the dollar and U.S. debt.

Defense and Aerospace Stocks Benefit from Increased Defense Spending

Against the backdrop of international tensions and rising demand for self-defense, the defense and aerospace industry has benefited significantly. South Korea's Hanwha Aerospace's stock price has risen 3000% over the past five years, and countries like Japan and Germany are also expanding their defense spending. In Taiwan, the government plans to increase the defense budget to more than 3% of GDP, boosting the performance of related stocks, including Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation (8222-TW), Thunder Tiger (8033-TW), and Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation (2634-TW).

Cybersecurity Stocks Strengthen Due to Accelerated AI Applications

As AI applications accelerate, cybersecurity demand is rising in tandem. The stock price of U.S. AI analytics software company Palantir has soared, driving the performance of cybersecurity concept stocks. In the Taiwan market, Syscom (6140-TW) reached a new high, while Lien Hwa (5202-TW), Mitac (6112-TW), and Lingsen (2453-TW) are at lower levels but strengthening. Analysts point out that as AI technology strengthens, the demand for cybersecurity protection increases, forming medium to long-term support.

After a 2,800-point rebound, US stocks face pressure from the seasonal moving average: AI demand, tariff policies, and US debt maturity are drawing market attention.

Key Updates

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