On April 29, PayPal will release its financial report, and investors are focusing on the impact of tariffs imposed by Trump on consumer spending.

Taiwan • Business • 04/28 13:30
On April 29, PayPal will release its financial report, and investors are focusing on the impact of tariffs imposed by Trump on consumer spending.

PayPal will announce its first-quarter 2025 financial report on April 29. The market is focused on its performance under the Trump administration's new tariff policies, especially in international business and consumer transactions. Analysts have mixed views on its prospects, with some downgrading ratings due to the impact of tariffs. The Trump tariff policy's effect on consumer spending has raised market concerns, particularly for low-income groups. The surge in Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) usage may temporarily boost PayPal's transaction volume, but it also raises credit risk. Investor sentiment is volatile, with clear signs of market funds flowing out of the United States. PayPal's market value is approximately $63.3 billion, and the CEO is driving innovation and cost control strategies.

Key Updates

04/29 03:06

New US Tariff Policy Sparks Price Hikes in E-commerce and Consumer Goods: Prices of Amazon and Shein Products Soar, Major Companies like Procter & Gamble Announce Price Changes

Since the implementation of the new United States tariff policy on April 9, 2025, prices on platforms like Amazon and Shein have surged. Amazon has seen an average price increase of 29% for nearly a thousand products, while Shein's beauty and health products have seen a 51% price hike. UPPAbaby strollers have experienced a 33% price increase. Procter & Gamble, Unilever, and Nestlé have announced plans to further raise their product prices in the coming months. This wave of price hikes, driven by the tariff policy, is impacting the daily lives of American consumers.

04/28 23:01

Chinese battery manufacturers have been severely impacted by high tariffs, while South Korean companies are speeding up their entry into the U.S. and European markets.

Global demand for energy storage is increasing, and Chinese battery manufacturers like CATL are facing up to 173.4% tariff pressures in the US market, hindering their market layout. South Korean companies like LG Energy Solution and SK On are expanding with policy support, filling the market void. Although Chinese companies have a cost advantage, they need to pivot towards Europe and emerging markets. US and European policies are reshaping the supply chain, prompting companies to accelerate the localization of production and technological upgrades.

04/28 21:31

Economist from Apollo: Trump's High Tariff Policy Predicted to Cause U.S. Economic Recession by Summer 2025

In the spring of 2025, the U.S. economy faced a supply chain crisis due to the Trump administration in the United States increasing tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%. Container volumes at ports plummeted, retailers such as Walmart warned of product shortages, the demand for trucking services collapsed, and manufacturers such as Mack Trucks laid off workers. Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, predicted that these factors would lead to a U.S. economic recession in the summer of 2025, showing signs of stagflation.

04/28 19:03

Singapore and the United States are negotiating concessions on the export of pharmaceuticals and AI chips, facing challenges due to Trump's tariffs. The economic growth forecast has been downgraded to between 0% and 2%, with the general election approaching.

Singapore is negotiating with the United States to obtain concessions for pharmaceutical exports and access to the AI chip market, in response to the challenge of Trump's 10% tariff policy. Singapore's economic growth forecast has been revised down to between 0% and 2%, with a rising risk of unemployment. With the parliamentary election approaching on May 3, the cost of living becomes a major concern for voters.

04/28 14:01

China refuses to accept Boeing passenger planes, Riyadh Air expresses willingness to purchase, Trump criticizes Beijing's trade policies

Chinese airlines have refused to accept Boeing planes due to US-China trade tensions, leading Boeing to return some planes to the US and seek resale. Tony Douglas, the CEO of Riyadh Air in Saudi Arabia, stated that if China cancels its order, the company is willing to purchase all the planes that were rejected. This move has drawn criticism from former US President Trump, who directed his criticism towards Beijing, urging Boeing to hold China accountable for breaching the contract and accusing China of not fulfilling its purchase commitments.

04/28 13:30

On April 29, PayPal will release its financial report, and investors are focusing on the impact of tariffs imposed by Trump on consumer spending.

PayPal will announce its first-quarter 2025 financial report on April 29. The market is focused on its performance under the Trump administration's new tariff policies, especially in international business and consumer transactions. Analysts have mixed views on its prospects, with some downgrading ratings due to the impact of tariffs. The Trump tariff policy's effect on consumer spending has raised market concerns, particularly for low-income groups. The surge in Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) usage may temporarily boost PayPal's transaction volume, but it also raises credit risk. Investor sentiment is volatile, with clear signs of market funds flowing out of the United States. PayPal's market value is approximately $63.3 billion, and the CEO is driving innovation and cost control strategies.

04/28 11:07

Indonesia and the United States initiate tariff negotiations, South Korea-US trade boosts South Korean stocks, South Korea's credit card delinquency rate hits a ten-year high

In April 2025, Indonesia and the United States initiated bilateral tariff negotiations, focusing on energy, agricultural products, and key minerals. Korea-U.S. trade talks boosted the South Korean stock market by 0.10%, but South Korea's credit card delinquency rate hit a ten-year high. Facing the new U.S. tariff policy, many Asian countries are accelerating negotiations, aiming to reach an agreement within 90 days.

04/28 01:00

Yiwu International Trade City Remains Vibrant Amidst the US-China Trade War: Merchants from the Middle East, South America, and India Fuel Competition in the Toy Wholesale Market

Despite the escalation of the US-China trade war, Yiwu International Trade City in Zhejiang will face pressure from high US tariffs in April 2025, hindering exports to the US market. However, merchants from the Middle East, South America, India, and other regions continue to pour in, particularly in the toy wholesale market, where prices are 30% to 50% below typical market rates. Yiwu merchants have successfully mitigated risks through market diversification and supply chain integration, maintaining their status as the world's hub for small commodities.

04/27 19:02

Trump's Tariff Policies: Reshaping US-China Trade and Posing Challenges to the American Supply Chain and Social Structure

The Trump administration's high tariff policy has intensified the pressure on U.S. social welfare spending, impacting the retail supply chain and the import of auto parts, while progress in manufacturing reshoring remains slow. Walmart has notified Chinese suppliers to resume shipments, with the tariffs being borne by U.S. buyers. China is advancing the integration of domestic and international trade to help exporters pivot to the domestic market. This trade war is transforming the industrial and social landscapes of both the U.S. and China.

04/27 17:00

The United States Launches Tariff Talks with 18 Nations: Reciprocal Tariffs Will Be Imposed if No Deal is Made

The U.S. government is advancing tariff negotiations with 18 trade partners, using a new framework from the U.S. Trade Representative, focusing on tariffs, non-tariff barriers, and digital trade issues, with plans to finalize by July 8, 2025. If no agreement is reached, reciprocal tariffs will be imposed. Mexico, Canada, and China are excluded from this framework and will be addressed separately.

PayPal Earnings Preview: Market Expectations and Analyst Opinions

PayPal is expected to release its first-quarter 2025 earnings report before the U.S. stock market opens on April 29. According to a survey conducted by LSEG analysts, the market expects PayPal's revenue for this quarter to increase by about 2% year-on-year, reaching $7.85 billion, with an estimated earnings per share (EPS) of $1.16, a 7.4% year-on-year increase [Source: TipRanks].

However, analysts have differing views on PayPal's prospects. Compass Point analyst Dominick Gabriele recently gave PayPal a "sell" rating, setting a target price of $56, below the current stock price [Source: Futunn]. Seaport Global analyst Jeff Cantwell also downgraded PayPal to a "sell," citing macro pressures from tariffs that could affect the company's ability to achieve long-term goals [Source: TipRanks].

Currently, about 90% of PayPal's revenue comes from consumer transactions, with over 40% from markets outside the United States, making it particularly sensitive to changes in the international trade environment [Source: CNBC].

Market Concerns Over Trump's Tariff Policy

In early April, the Trump administration announced tariffs on imports from over 180 countries and regions, with tariffs on Chinese goods reaching as high as 145%, and removed the de minimis tax exemption for small imports, effective May 2 [Source: CNBC].

According to former White House National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn, the full impact of these tariffs is expected to be felt by the end of May, particularly affecting low-income groups who may spend 100% of their wages on basic goods [Source: Liberty Times]. Additionally, consumer confidence indices have shown signs of weakening, indicating potential reductions in future spending.

According to a poll by the Associated Press and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, about half of American adults believe Trump's trade policies will "significantly" increase prices, with another 30% expecting prices to "rise somewhat" [Source: Yahoo Finance].

Changes in Consumer Behavior: Surge in BNPL Usage

Amid increasing economic pressure, American consumers are increasingly relying on "Buy Now, Pay Later" (BNPL) services to manage daily expenses. According to a Lending Tree survey, about 50% of respondents have used BNPL for shopping, with 25% using it for groceries, a significant increase from 14% in 2024 [Source: MoneyDJ]. As a major BNPL service provider, this trend may provide short-term support for PayPal's transaction volume but also increases credit risk.

Notably, 41% of BNPL users admitted to missing payments in the past year, up from 34% in 2024, reflecting rising financial pressure on consumers.

Investor Sentiment and Market Reaction

The market's reaction to Trump's tariff policy is complex and volatile. Although Trump announced a 90-day delay on some tariffs in mid-April and signaled progress in negotiations with China, market sentiment briefly improved, but the overall trade situation remains uncertain [Source: UAnalyze].

According to Bloomberg, since the tariff increase in April, U.S. freight volume to China has decreased by approximately 60%, and retail giants like Walmart and Target have warned of potential inventory shortages and price increases by mid-May [Source: Yahoo Finance].

Additionally, according to data compiled by E.SUN Bank, the U.S. trade policy uncertainty index has surpassed the peak of Trump's first term, with corporate investment becoming more conservative and market funds showing signs of flowing to markets outside the U.S. [Source: E.SUN Bank].

PayPal Fundamental Overview

As of the latest data, PayPal's market capitalization is approximately $63.3 billion, with its stock price having increased only slightly by 1.19% over the past year, but down more than 23% year-to-date in 2025 [Source: Finviz]. The company's gross profit margin is 40.52%, operating profit margin is 18.10%, and debt-to-equity ratio is 0.58, indicating a relatively stable financial structure.

Since assuming the role in September 2023, PayPal CEO Alex Chriss has been promoting a strategy of innovation and cost control in parallel, attempting to revitalize growth momentum in the highly competitive digital payments market [Source: Mitrade].

References

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