Bitcoin Nears $100K Amid Speculation on Trump’s Trade Deal with Major Nation

Bitcoin surged to nearly $100,000 on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a potential trade deal with an unnamed country, speculated to be the UK. The announcement, amid easing macroeconomic pressures like falling bond yields and a weaker dollar, boosted both crypto and traditional markets. Bitcoin's rally was supported by increased institutional interest and favorable on-chain metrics. Analysts predict further gains, though caution remains as the trade deal may be preliminary. Concurrently, U.S.-China trade talks are set to resume, potentially impacting market dynamics.

Bitcoin Climbs Amid Trade Deal Speculation

Bitcoin (BTC) traded as high as $99,900 in early Thursday sessions, extending a weeklong rally that has seen the cryptocurrency gain over 5% in the past 24 hours. The move follows President Trump’s social media post late Wednesday, in which he teased a “major” trade deal announcement scheduled for 10 a.m. ET in the Oval Office. While the president did not name the country involved, multiple reports suggest the United Kingdom may be the counterpart in the agreement.

The announcement comes just weeks after Trump imposed steep tariffs on imported goods, triggering volatility across global markets. The White House has since paused some of those tariffs, opening a 90-day window for negotiations. According to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the administration is in advanced talks with 17 out of 18 key trading partners, with China being the notable exception.

Market Reaction: Crypto and Equities Rally

The crypto market responded swiftly to the news. Bitcoin broke above $99,000 during the early Asian trading session, while the total cryptocurrency market capitalization surpassed $3 trillion, according to Coinglass. This rally also wiped out over 71% of leveraged short positions, indicating a strong shift in market sentiment.

Asian equity markets traded in the green, and U.S. stock futures rose, with S&P 500 futures up 0.6%. Analysts attribute the bullish momentum to the potential easing of trade tensions and the broader macroeconomic backdrop, which includes a dovish Federal Reserve stance and declining U.S. Treasury yields.

Institutional Interest and On-Chain Metrics Support Rally

Beyond geopolitical developments, on-chain data and institutional behavior have reinforced Bitcoin’s upward trajectory. According to CoinGape, Bitcoin’s “Age Consumed” metric—a measure of the movement of long-held coins—has plummeted, suggesting that long-term holders are not selling into the rally. This behavior is often interpreted as a sign of confidence in further price appreciation.

Open interest in Bitcoin derivatives has also surged following the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) recent decision to hold interest rates steady. The combination of reduced selling pressure, increased institutional exposure via spot Bitcoin ETFs, and improving macro sentiment has created a favorable environment for Bitcoin’s continued ascent.

Analysts Eye $100K and Beyond

Technical analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s near-term prospects. Crypto analyst Crypto Zeinab noted that BTC has successfully retested key support levels and is now targeting new highs, with Fibonacci projections pointing to $118,000 and $130,000 as potential next stops. Similarly, Rekt Capital highlighted Bitcoin’s resilience above the $93,500 level and identified a breakout range between $97,000 and $99,000 that could lead to a decisive move past $100,000.

However, some caution remains. As reported by CoinDesk, the Wall Street Journal has suggested that the upcoming trade deal may be more of a preliminary framework than a finalized agreement. This could temper market enthusiasm if the announcement lacks concrete tariff adjustments or enforceable terms.

U.S.-China Trade Talks Also in Focus

While the spotlight is currently on the unnamed trade partner—likely the U.K.—markets are also closely watching developments between the U.S. and China. Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed that high-level trade talks with China are scheduled to begin this Saturday in Switzerland. The talks follow a turbulent period marked by reciprocal tariffs as high as 145% and 125% from the U.S. and China, respectively.

Bitcoin had previously dropped from $88,500 to $74,500 in early April following the initial tariff announcements but rebounded sharply after the temporary truce was declared on April 9. The resumption of dialogue between the world’s two largest economies is seen as a potential catalyst for further gains in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Broader Implications for Crypto and Tech

The potential easing of tariffs could have far-reaching implications beyond Bitcoin. Lower trade barriers may reduce inflationary pressures and improve the investment climate for high-beta assets such as technology stocks and digital currencies. According to CoinDesk, the current rally is supported by a confluence of favorable macroeconomic indicators, including falling bond yields and a weaker dollar.

Moreover, the political backdrop is shifting. Trump’s administration has signaled a more aggressive push to secure trade deals and revive domestic manufacturing, while also embracing digital assets as part of its broader economic strategy. This includes proposals to legalize and integrate cryptocurrencies into the U.S. financial system, further legitimizing the asset class in the eyes of institutional investors.

References

• Bitcoin Price Reaction to FOMC Meeting: BTC Age Consumed Metric Confirms $100,000 Breakout Signal
• BTC Price Nears $100K as US-China Trade Talks Set to Begin May 10 - CoinCentral
• Trump is set to announce his first trade deal since his tariffs sent markets reeling
• Donald Trump to make ‘major trade deal’ announcement with a BIG country, says ‘the first of many’ | Mint
• Why is the cryptomarket rallying?
• Cryptos Rise As China Trade Deal Hopes Eclipse Fed Fears
• BTC Price News: Bitcoin Nears $100K as Trump Teases ‘Big’ Trade Deal
• US to begin negotiations on tariffs with China
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