Standard Chartered Analyst Geoffrey Kendrick Raises Bitcoin Forecast, Predicts Higher Than $120,000 by Q2 2025

Standard Chartered's Head of Digital Asset Research, Geoffrey Kendrick, suggests the bank's Bitcoin forecast of $120,000 for Q2 2025 may be too low. This revision is driven by strategic asset reallocation from U.S. assets, institutional 'whale' accumulation, and significant inflows into U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs. Kendrick notes that these factors indicate a structural shift in capital flows, with Bitcoin increasingly seen as a strategic asset. The bank also maintains a year-end forecast of $200,000, contingent on continued institutional adoption and favorable regulatory conditions.

Strategic Reallocation and Whale Accumulation Drive Forecast

In a recent note to clients and in interviews with multiple media outlets, Kendrick emphasized that the dominant narrative around Bitcoin has shifted. “It was correlation to risk assets... It then became a way to position for strategic asset reallocation out of U.S. assets,” he wrote. “It is now all about flows. And flows are coming in many forms.”

Kendrick pointed to a significant reallocation of capital from traditional U.S. assets into Bitcoin, a trend he believes is accelerating. This shift is being led by institutional investors seeking alternative stores of value amid rising U.S. Treasury term premiums and macroeconomic uncertainty. The bank’s analysis suggests that Bitcoin is increasingly being viewed not just as a speculative asset, but as a strategic component of diversified portfolios.

One of the most prominent examples of this trend is MicroStrategy—now rebranded as Strategy—which has aggressively expanded its Bitcoin holdings. As of early May 2025, the firm holds 555,450 BTC, representing approximately 2.6% of the total supply that will ever exist. Kendrick noted that Strategy’s proposed $84 billion capital raise could enable it to acquire an additional 840,000 BTC, potentially increasing its share to over 6% of the total supply, assuming a $100,000 price per coin.

ETF Inflows Signal Institutional Momentum

Another key driver behind Standard Chartered’s revised outlook is the robust inflow into U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs. Over the past three weeks alone, these ETFs have attracted $5.3 billion in net inflows, according to Kendrick. This surge in demand is seen as a strong indicator of growing institutional interest and long-term positioning.

Kendrick highlighted that these inflows are not merely speculative but represent a structural shift in how institutions are allocating capital. “This is no longer just about macro hedging or correlation with tech stocks—this is pure demand,” he stated. The upcoming 13F filings from ETF issuers are expected to provide further clarity on the identities and strategies of these institutional buyers.

Among the notable participants are sovereign wealth funds and central banks. The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority reportedly holds shares in BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF, while the Swiss National Bank and Norges Bank have increased their exposure through ETF holdings and equity stakes in Strategy. Additionally, U.S. state-level initiatives, such as New Hampshire’s legislation to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, underscore the growing mainstream acceptance of Bitcoin as a reserve asset.

Kendrick: "$120,000 May Be Too Low"

Kendrick’s original forecast, issued earlier this year, projected Bitcoin reaching $120,000 by the end of Q2 2025. However, in light of recent developments, he has revised his tone. “I apologize that my $120,000 Q2 target may be too low,” he said in a note shared with clients on May 8. He added that the target now “looks very achievable,” suggesting that the actual price could exceed this level before the quarter ends.

The bank’s updated view is supported by data on net real flows, which Kendrick estimates at over $4 billion after adjusting for hedge fund short positions reported by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). These flows, he argues, are exerting strong upward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.

Institutional Accumulation Patterns Mirror Pre-Rally Behavior

Standard Chartered’s analysis also draws parallels between current accumulation patterns and those observed in previous Bitcoin bull markets. Kendrick noted that whale accumulation—defined as large-scale purchases by entities holding significant amounts of Bitcoin—is once again on the rise. This behavior typically precedes major price rallies, as it signals confidence among long-term holders.

The bank’s research indicates that American investors are leading the charge, with the majority of ETF inflows and trading activity occurring during U.S. market hours. This trend suggests that domestic institutions are increasingly comfortable with Bitcoin exposure, particularly through regulated investment vehicles like ETFs.

Broader Macroeconomic Context

While the bank’s forecast is primarily driven by crypto-specific factors, it also reflects broader macroeconomic dynamics. Rising U.S. Treasury yields and persistent inflation concerns have prompted investors to seek alternative assets. Bitcoin, with its fixed supply and decentralized nature, is increasingly being positioned as a hedge against fiat currency debasement and geopolitical risk.

Kendrick previously linked Bitcoin’s rally to a strategic reallocation out of U.S. assets, a narrative that continues to gain traction. “The dominant story for Bitcoin has changed again,” he wrote. “It is now all about flows.”

Year-End Outlook and Beyond

Although the focus remains on the Q2 2025 target, Standard Chartered has also reiterated its year-end forecast of $200,000 for Bitcoin. This projection assumes continued institutional adoption, favorable regulatory developments, and sustained capital inflows. While Kendrick acknowledged that risks remain—including regulatory uncertainty and market volatility—he maintains that the structural drivers are firmly in place.

References

• Standard Chartered Says Fresh Bitcoin All-Time High Is Imminent
• Bitcoin's New All-Time High Predicted by Standard Chartered
• Bitcoin $120,000 Price Target May Be Too Low, Says Standard Chartered: 'I Apologize'
• Standard Chartered analyst apologizes for $120,000 bitcoin price call, says target 'may be too low'
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