Pakistan Claims Chinese J-10C Jets Downed Indian Rafales in Border Skirmish, Escalating Tensions

Pakistan claims its Chinese-made J-10C jets shot down five Indian aircraft, including three Rafale jets, during a border skirmish over Kashmir. India has not confirmed the losses, but images and foreign statements lend some credibility to Pakistan's account. If verified, this would be the first combat kill for the J-10C and the first loss of a Rafale in combat. The incident has boosted Chengdu Aircraft Corporation's stock and highlighted shifting arms trade dynamics, with Pakistan relying on China and India on Western suppliers.

Pakistan’s Official Claim

On May 7, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and the country’s military announced that five Indian aircraft had been downed in a brief but intense aerial engagement over the disputed Kashmir region. Speaking before Pakistan’s National Assembly, Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar specified that the aircraft included three Rafale fighters and that the operation was carried out using Chinese-origin J-10C jets.

“Our jet fighters… shot down Indian Rafales, three Rafales [that] are French,” Dar said. “Ours were J-10C. All of these are jet fighters in collaboration with China.” He added that the engagement was a response to Indian airstrikes on alleged terror camps in Pakistan, part of what India reportedly called "Operation Sindoor."

China’s Response and Diplomatic Engagement

In the early hours following the skirmish, China’s ambassador to Pakistan made an unannounced visit to the Pakistani foreign ministry. According to Dar, the Chinese delegation arrived at 4 a.m. to “celebrate an unprecedented military success.” He described the Chinese officials as “expressing great happiness” over the outcome.

However, when asked about the incident, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs offered a more cautious stance. A spokesperson stated, “I’m not familiar with the matter you mentioned,” declining to confirm any involvement of Chinese-made jets in the conflict.

Despite the official ambiguity, Chinese state media and military commentators have praised the J-10C’s performance. Hu Xijin, former editor of the Global Times, claimed the incident demonstrated that “China’s level of military manufacturing has completely surpassed that of Russia and France.”

Evidence and Independent Verification

While India has not issued an official statement confirming the loss of any aircraft, open-source intelligence and photographic evidence have begun to surface. Images published by The Aviationist show wreckage identified as belonging to a Rafale EH fighter jet with serial number BS-001, the first Rafale delivered to the Indian Air Force. The debris was reportedly found near Bathinda, deep inside Indian territory, suggesting a long-range engagement.

A high-ranking French intelligence official told CNN that at least one Indian Rafale had indeed been shot down, marking the first combat loss of the aircraft. French authorities are reportedly investigating whether more than one Rafale was downed.

Additionally, a U.S. official told Reuters that there was “high confidence” a J-10C had shot down two Indian fighters using air-to-air missiles, likely the Chinese-made PL-15E. The PL-15E, an export variant of China’s long-range air-to-air missile, is known for its beyond-visual-range capabilities and is carried by the J-10C.

The J-10C and PL-15E: A Combat Debut

The J-10C, a 4.5-generation multirole fighter developed by Chengdu Aircraft Corporation, has been in service with the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) since 2022. Pakistan ordered 36 of the J-10CE export variant, and currently operates around 20 of them. The aircraft is equipped with an active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar and is capable of deploying the PL-15E missile, which has a range of up to 145 kilometers.

The PL-15E missile reportedly played a key role in the engagement. According to missile technology researcher Fabian Hoffmann, the missile’s dual-pulse motor and AESA radar guidance system give it a “no-escape zone,” allowing it to strike targets at long distances while keeping the launch platform safe from counterfire.

If confirmed, this would be the first time the J-10C and PL-15E have been used in live combat, and their success could significantly boost the reputation of Chinese military aerospace technology.

Market Reaction and Strategic Implications

The reported success of the J-10C has had immediate commercial implications. Chengdu Aircraft Corporation, the jet’s manufacturer, saw its stock surge by as much as 20% following the news. The incident has also sparked renewed interest in the J-10C from other countries. Uzbekistan, for instance, is reportedly considering the J-10C as a replacement for its aging Soviet-era fighters, alongside the Rafale.

The clash has also highlighted the shifting dynamics of global arms trade. While India has increasingly turned to Western suppliers like France and the U.S., Pakistan has deepened its defense ties with China. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), 82% of Pakistan’s arms imports between 2019 and 2023 came from China.

India’s Silence and Domestic Reaction

Despite mounting evidence, the Indian government has remained silent on the reported losses. However, Indian social media users and defense analysts have strongly rejected the claims, calling them propaganda. Some Indian experts have suggested that the images of wreckage could be from older incidents or unrelated crashes.

Nevertheless, the lack of an official denial or confirmation has fueled speculation. The Indian Air Force has not released any statements, and the Ministry of Defence has not responded to media inquiries.

International Observers Urge Restraint

In the wake of the incident, China’s foreign ministry has urged both India and Pakistan to exercise restraint and avoid further escalation. The United States and France have also reportedly been monitoring the situation closely, given the involvement of their defense technologies.

While the full scope of the engagement remains unclear, the incident has already made history by potentially marking the first air-to-air kill for the J-10C and the first combat loss of a Rafale. As more evidence emerges, the geopolitical and military ramifications of this encounter are likely to reverberate far beyond South Asia.

Pakistan Claims Chinese J-10C Jets Downed Indian Rafales in Border Skirmish, Escalating Tensions

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