China-U.S. Trade Plummets in April 2025 Amid Escalating Tariff War

In April 2025, China's exports to the U.S. fell by 21% and imports dropped 13.8% year-on-year, according to China's General Administration of Customs. This decline follows the U.S. imposing tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese goods, with China retaliating with 125% tariffs on U.S. imports. The tariff war has disrupted trade flows, with U.S. ports like Long Beach reporting significant declines in freight volumes. Companies are reassessing supply chains, and U.S.-China trade talks are scheduled in Geneva, with potential tariff reductions being discussed.

Trade Volumes Plummet Under Weight of Tariffs

The latest customs data underscores the immediate impact of the tariff hikes that took effect in early April. On April 9, the Trump administration raised tariffs on most Chinese imports to 145%, a move described by the White House as part of a broader “Liberation Day” trade policy shift. In response, China imposed retaliatory tariffs of 125% on a wide range of U.S. goods just two days later.

As a result, China’s exports to the U.S. in April 2025 fell by 21% compared to the same month in 2024, marking one of the steepest year-on-year declines in recent years. Imports from the U.S. also contracted sharply, down 13.8% over the same period. These figures reflect a significant deterioration in trade relations and a marked shift in supply chain behavior, as businesses on both sides of the Pacific adjust to the new tariff landscape.

Exporters Rush to Beat Tariff Deadlines

Despite the April plunge in U.S.-bound shipments, China’s overall exports rose 8.1% year-on-year in April, buoyed by strong demand from other Asian markets and a rush by exporters to ship goods before the new tariffs took effect. This growth, however, was slower than the 12.4% increase recorded in March, when many Chinese firms accelerated shipments in anticipation of the tariff hikes.

“Exports from China exceeded expectations in April, but the headline number masks the sharp drop in trade with the U.S.,” said Rian Howlett, a trade analyst. “The data clearly shows that the U.S. market is becoming increasingly inaccessible for Chinese exporters under the current tariff regime.”

U.S. Ports and Logistics Feel the Strain

The impact of the trade war is also being felt at U.S. ports and across global logistics networks. According to Maersk, one of the world’s largest shipping companies, container volumes from China to the U.S. dropped by 30% to 40% in April. The Port of Long Beach in California, a major entry point for Chinese goods, reported a significant decline in inbound freight appointments, with April volumes down 41% from March.

“Shippers are holding back,” said Noel Hacegaba, Chief Operating Officer at the Port of Long Beach. “The uncertainty around tariffs is causing many to delay or reroute shipments. We’re seeing a real-time disruption in trade flows.”

Supply Chains Shift as Businesses Reassess

The tariff escalation has prompted many companies to reconsider their reliance on China-based manufacturing. Firms that produce goods in China are increasingly exploring alternative sourcing options in Southeast Asia and Latin America. According to logistics experts, the redirection of supply chains is already underway, though the scale of the shift varies by industry.

Jay Foreman, CEO of toy manufacturer Basic Fun, said his company has delayed shipments of several containers from China due to the 145% tariff. “We simply can’t afford to bring those goods in under the current levy,” he said. “We’re storing them in warehouses until we get clarity on whether the tariffs will be reduced.”

Trade Talks Offer Glimmer of Hope

Amid the deepening trade rift, U.S. and Chinese officials are scheduled to meet in Geneva this weekend for high-level negotiations aimed at de-escalating the tariff war. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will lead the American delegation, while China is expected to send senior trade officials to the talks.

While expectations remain low, there are signs that both sides may be open to compromise. Sources close to the negotiations have indicated that the U.S. is considering reducing tariffs on Chinese goods to between 50% and 54% as a goodwill gesture to jumpstart talks. President Trump himself hinted at the possibility of lowering tariffs, stating, “Right now, you can’t get any higher. It’s at 145, so we know it’s coming down.”

Broader Economic Implications

Although this report does not delve into the broader economic consequences, it is clear that the current trade environment is exerting pressure on both economies. In China, factory activity contracted at its fastest pace in 16 months in April, while in the U.S., businesses have been stockpiling goods and delaying imports in anticipation of higher costs.

The sharp drop in bilateral trade volumes is a direct reflection of the tariff war’s disruptive effects. With tariffs at historic highs and no immediate resolution in sight, the outlook for U.S.-China trade remains uncertain.

References

• China export growth beats forecasts despite Trump tariffs
• China’s exports slowed in April as Trump’s tariffs kicked in
• Exclusive | US weighs plan to slash China tariffs to as low as 50% — down from 145% — as soon as next week: sources
• Maersk Cuts 2025 Container Outlook: China Capacity ‘Not Available Elsewhere’
• 中国 貿易統計 4月の米への輸出額 去年同月比マイナス21％ | NHK