By 2025, China-US trade is projected to decrease by 2.1%, and the throughput at US West Coast ports is expected to drop by 30% in May.

Taiwan • Business • 05/09 09:03
By 2025, China-US trade is projected to decrease by 2.1%, and the throughput at US West Coast ports is expected to drop by 30% in May.

Since early 2025, China-US trade has been under continuous pressure, with a total trade value of 1.44 trillion yuan from January to April, a 2.1% decrease compared to the same period last year. Container throughput at the Los Angeles and Long Beach ports is expected to drop by 30% in May, due to importers stocking up early, weak demand, and changes in tariff policies. US imports surged by 9.1% in April, but demand plummeted in May. These figures indicate a significant slowdown in China-US trade and logistics activities.

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05/09 09:03

By 2025, China-US trade is projected to decrease by 2.1%, and the throughput at US West Coast ports is expected to drop by 30% in May.

Since early 2025, China-US trade has been under continuous pressure, with a total trade value of 1.44 trillion yuan from January to April, a 2.1% decrease compared to the same period last year. Container throughput at the Los Angeles and Long Beach ports is expected to drop by 30% in May, due to importers stocking up early, weak demand, and changes in tariff policies. US imports surged by 9.1% in April, but demand plummeted in May. These figures indicate a significant slowdown in China-US trade and logistics activities.

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Total Trade Value Between China and the US Declines, Both Exports and Imports Fall

According to data released by China's General Administration of Customs on May 9, the total bilateral trade value between China and the US for the first four months of 2025 was 1.44 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%, accounting for 10.2% of China's total foreign trade value. Of this total, China's exports to the US were 1.07 trillion yuan, down 1.5%; imports from the US were 369.95 billion yuan, down 3.7%. The US remains China's third-largest trading partner, following ASEAN and the EU.

This trend aligns with the data for April alone. According to a report by the Economic Information Daily, China's exports to the US in April dropped 21% compared to the same month last year, marking the largest decline since July 2023. Bloomberg Economics pointed out that this decline was mainly concentrated in the last 10 days of April, indicating the suddenness and severity of the export slowdown.

Los Angeles and Long Beach Ports: May Throughput Expected to Drop 30%

As the busiest container ports in the US, the shipping activity of the Los Angeles and Long Beach ports are considered indicators of US-China trade activity. According to Gene Seroka, Executive Director of the Port of Los Angeles, at the April 24 port commission meeting, ship arrivals are expected to decrease by 35% over the next two weeks. He noted that major retailers and manufacturers have completely stopped importing from China, and freight volumes from Southeast Asia are also well below normal levels.

Data from the Southern California Maritime Exchange further corroborates this trend. In the first five days of May, the Los Angeles and Long Beach ports received 22 ships, well below the usual 28.5 ships; only 9 ships are expected to arrive in the next three days, compared to the normal 17 ships. The agency's CEO, Capt. Kit Louttit, pointed out that the drop in ship arrivals will result in overcapacity in port, maritime, and land transport systems.

Mario Cordero, CEO of the Port of Long Beach, predicts that the combined throughput of the two ports in May will be down 30% from the same time last year. He stated that this estimate is based on the currently canceled voyages and changes in the number of scheduled ships. According to Seroka, it was originally expected that 80 ships would arrive at the Port of Los Angeles in May, but 20% have been canceled, and 13 voyages have already been canceled for June.

April Imports Surge, May Takes a Sharp Turn

Despite the expected sharp decline in May, US import data for April showed a significant increase. According to a report by supply chain technology company Descartes, US container imports in April increased by 9.1% year-on-year, reaching 2.4 million TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units), the second-highest record for April in history. Imports from China accounted for 33.4%, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%.

This surge is believed to be the result of companies stockpiling in advance to avoid the 145% tariff that took effect on April 9. However, this advance stockpiling also created a demand gap in May. Seroka pointed out that many importers had completed their stockpiling in the first quarter, significantly weakening import demand for May.

Observations from Shipping Companies and Port Equipment Manufacturers

Shipping giant Maersk also noted that container shipping volume between the US and China dropped by 30% to 40% in April. Due to the time required for trans-Pacific transport, this change is expected to be fully reflected in US port data for May.

Robert Taylor, President of port equipment manufacturer Taylor Machine Works, stated that tariff issues have become a focus for the company. Although the company is a US manufacturer, it still relies on components from Europe, and the uncertainty of trade policies presents challenges to its supply chain.

Specific Data on Port Transportation Volume Changes

According to statistics from the Southern California Maritime Exchange, in January this year, the Los Angeles and Long Beach ports received an average of 58.9 ships per day; this dropped to 54.8 ships in April; and as of May 6, it further decreased to only 41 ships per day. This data shows that the decline in port shipping volume is not abrupt but shows a continuous downward trend.

Additionally, according to a report by Hellenic Shipping News, imports at the Port of Los Angeles in May are expected to drop 35% from the same period last year, and overall ship traffic may decrease by about 20%. At the Port of Long Beach, Cordero also expects May throughput to decrease by 20% year-on-year.

References

People Also Ask...

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How does the decline in U.S.-China trade and the reduction in port throughput affect investment?

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The trade volume between China and the US is decreasing, and the Port of Los Angeles is expected to see a 30% decrease in cargo volume in May. How will this affect the US economy?

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The trade between China and the US is declining, with throughput at US ports expected to decrease by 30% in May. Which industries will have their investment decisions affected by this?