U.S. Beef Imports from Brazil Surge Despite Tariffs, Driven by High Domestic Prices
In early 2025, U.S. imports of Brazilian beef surged by 67% to $557.15 million, despite a new 36.4% tariff. High domestic cattle prices and low inventories have driven U.S. meatpackers to rely on Brazilian beef, especially for fast-food chains. The Trump administration's tariffs and retaliatory measures are reshaping global meat trade, potentially redirecting more Brazilian beef to China. This shift could raise prices for American consumers as Brazil fills its tariff-free quota rapidly, and U.S. supply constraints persist amid trade tensions with China.
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U.S. Beef Imports from Brazil Surge Despite Tariffs, Driven by High Domestic Prices
In early 2025, U.S. imports of Brazilian beef surged by 67% to $557.15 million, despite a new 36.4% tariff. High domestic cattle prices and low inventories have driven U.S. meatpackers to rely on Brazilian beef, especially for fast-food chains. The Trump administration's tariffs and retaliatory measures are reshaping global meat trade, potentially redirecting more Brazilian beef to China. This shift could raise prices for American consumers as Brazil fills its tariff-free quota rapidly, and U.S. supply constraints persist amid trade tensions with China.
Brazilian Beef Floods U.S. Market Despite Tariffs
In the first quarter of 2025, Brazilian beef exports to the United States reached $557.15 million, a 67% increase by value compared to the same period last year, according to data from Brazilian beef industry group Abrafrigo. This surge comes even as the U.S. imposed a new 10% base tariff on Brazilian goods on April 2, 2025, bringing the total levy on beef imports exceeding the annual quota to 36.4%.
Despite the higher costs, Brazilian beef remains competitive in the U.S. market. Domestic cattle prices in the U.S. have soared due to historically low livestock inventories, making imported beef an attractive alternative. According to Joao Figueiredo, a beef analyst at Datagro, Brazil filled its 65,000-ton annual tariff-free quota in just 14 days—an unprecedented pace that underscores the strength of U.S. demand.
Fernando Iglesias of Safras & Mercado estimates that Brazilian beef imports into the U.S. will grow by nearly 14% in 2025, reaching 428,000 tons in carcass weight equivalent. This volume reflects the increasing reliance of American consumers and food service providers on foreign beef, particularly from Brazil, which now accounts for more than 30% of global beef trade.
Tariff Structure and Trade Policy Shifts
The Trump administration’s trade policy has significantly altered the landscape for global meat trade. On top of the existing 26.4% tariff for beef imports exceeding the quota, the new 10% base tariff imposed in April 2025 has raised the total duty to 36.4% for Brazilian beef. While this would typically dampen imports, the U.S. market’s need for affordable beef has kept demand high.
The U.S. ran a modest trade surplus of $253 million with Brazil in 2024, but President Trump criticized Brazil as a “tremendous tariff maker” and moved forward with new levies. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vowed to reciprocate, though Brazil has so far refrained from retaliating against U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum.
The tariff escalation is part of a broader trade war strategy that includes sweeping duties on Chinese and Mexican goods. China, in turn, has imposed retaliatory tariffs of 147% on U.S. beef and 172% on pork, effectively shutting out American meat exporters from the world’s largest commodity importer.
China’s Growing Appetite for Brazilian Beef
As U.S.-China trade tensions deepen, China has increasingly turned to Brazil to meet its growing demand for beef. Brazilian meatpacker Minerva SA reported that tariff turmoil has driven up Chinese demand and export prices for South American beef, boosting profits in the first quarter of 2025.
China’s decision not to renew export registrations for nearly 400 U.S. beef processing plants and nine pork facilities has further limited American access to the Chinese market. This has created an opportunity for Brazil and other South American exporters to fill the gap. Australian beef, also facing a 10% U.S. tariff, is similarly being redirected to China.
Exports to the U.S. now represent 17% of Brazil’s total beef exports, but analysts warn that this share could decline if Chinese demand continues to rise and U.S. tariffs remain in place. The average sale price of Brazilian beef to the U.S. rose to $3,384 per ton in early 2025, up from $2,943, reflecting both strong demand and higher costs due to tariffs.
U.S. Supply Constraints and Import Dependence
The U.S. beef industry is grappling with supply-side challenges. The United States Meat Export Federation (USMEF) has reported that retaliatory tariffs from China have severely impacted U.S. beef and pork exports, posing financial risks to domestic producers. With U.S. cattle inventories at historic lows, meatpackers have increasingly relied on imports to meet consumer demand.
This reliance is evident in the composition of American meals. From backyard barbecues to fast-food burgers and school lunches, Brazilian beef has become a staple in the U.S. food system. The blend of domestic and imported ground beef is now a common feature in millions of American households.
However, the cost of this dependence is rising. Importers are bearing the brunt of higher tariffs, and those costs are likely to be passed on to consumers. Analysts warn that continued trade tensions could push more Brazilian beef toward China, tightening supply in the U.S. and driving up prices.
Export Redirection and Global Market Realignment
The global beef trade is undergoing a significant realignment. While Argentina’s beef exports have declined sharply—down 33% year-on-year in the first two months of 2025—Brazil and Uruguay are stepping in to meet global demand. Uruguay, for instance, saw the U.S. emerge as its top beef export destination in April 2025, supported by increased promotional efforts and trade partnerships.
Meanwhile, the U.S. farm sector is feeling the broader impact of trade disruptions. Tariffs have delayed grain shipments, constrained chemical imports, and reduced profitability for American growers. The pork industry alone could face annual losses exceeding $1 billion due to lost access to the Chinese market.
In this context, Brazil’s position as a leading beef exporter has been strengthened. With ample cattle supplies in states like Mato Grosso and a favorable exchange rate, Brazilian ranchers are well-positioned to expand exports to both the U.S. and China, depending on market conditions and trade policy developments.
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