Democrats Face 2028 Primary Calendar Dilemma as States Compete for Early Voting Status Post-Biden's 2024 Overhaul

The Democratic Party is debating which state will cast the first votes in the 2028 presidential primary, following President Biden's 2022 overhaul that placed South Carolina first for 2024. With Biden out of office and the party recovering from a 2024 loss to Donald Trump, states like South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Iowa are competing for early voting status. This decision is crucial for shaping Democratic strategy and identity, as it reflects the party's values and priorities. Potential candidates are already visiting key states, signaling their strategic interests.

A Legacy of Change: Biden’s 2024 Calendar Overhaul

In 2022, President Biden proposed a significant reshuffling of the Democratic primary calendar, aiming to better reflect the party’s diverse electorate. The DNC approved a plan that placed South Carolina first, followed by Nevada, New Hampshire, and Georgia. This move was intended to elevate states with more racial and economic diversity, sidelining Iowa’s caucuses and New Hampshire’s long-standing first-in-the-nation primary.

The decision was met with resistance. New Hampshire defied the DNC by holding an unsanctioned primary in January 2024, which Biden did not contest but won via write-in votes. Iowa, meanwhile, complied with the new rules, holding mail-in caucuses and releasing results on Super Tuesday. The shake-up left both states uncertain about their future roles and set the stage for the current scramble to reclaim early influence.

States Make Their Case for 2028

South Carolina: Defending Its New Status

South Carolina, which played a pivotal role in reviving Biden’s 2020 campaign, is making a strong case to retain its first-in-the-nation status. Christale Spain, the state party chair, emphasized the state’s diverse electorate and its significance in Democratic politics.

“It’s our plan to really work to stay first in the nation,” Spain said, citing the state’s Black voter base, veteran population, and educational institutions. South Carolina’s Blue Palmetto Dinner continues to attract national figures, with Maryland Governor Wes Moore scheduled to headline the event later this month.

Nevada: A Push for Diversity and Representation

Nevada, which held its 2024 primary shortly after South Carolina, is also lobbying for a top spot. State party chair Daniele Monroe-Moreno highlighted Nevada’s racial and economic diversity, including its large Latino, Black, and Asian populations, as well as its strong union presence.

“If Democrats want to win back working class voters and rebuild our broad coalition of voters of color, we should elevate the most working class and most diverse battleground state in the nation,” Monroe-Moreno said.

Despite its geographic disadvantage in the West, which has historically limited candidate visits, Nevada’s leaders argue that the state better reflects the nation’s demographic future.

New Hampshire: Legal Mandates and Defiant Tradition

New Hampshire remains determined to maintain its early primary, citing a state law that requires it to hold the first primary in the nation. State party chair Ray Buckley said the 2028 process should be more balanced, without undue influence from national leaders.

“This is going to be much more of a level playing field,” Buckley said. “There’s no reason to come in with a two-ton thumb and put it on the scale.”

Kathy Sullivan, a former state party chair and DNC rules committee member, acknowledged that Iowa may have lost its edge, but New Hampshire’s defiance in 2024 may have preserved its leverage.

Iowa: A Fight to Regain Relevance

Iowa Democrats, once the gatekeepers of the presidential race, are now fighting to reclaim their early role. Scott Brennan, a DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee member and former state party chair, said the state expects a fair process in 2028.

“We took everyone at their word that all bets are off for 2028,” Brennan said. “We expect that there will be a fair process and that we will be given every consideration to be an early state.”

Former U.S. Rep. Dave Nagle went further, urging Iowa to assert its traditional role regardless of DNC decisions. “All we have to do is look at the Democratic National Committee and say, ‘Sorry, we’re going first,’” Nagle said.

Early Visits Signal Candidate Strategies

While the DNC has yet to finalize the 2028 calendar, potential presidential hopefuls are already making strategic visits to early-voting states. Illinois Governor JB Pritzker recently headlined a New Hampshire Democratic dinner, while Maryland Governor Wes Moore is set to appear in South Carolina. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg will return to Iowa for a VoteVets Action Fund event, marking his first public appearance since leaving the Biden administration.

These visits offer a glimpse into how candidates are positioning themselves and which states they view as critical to their path to the nomination.

A Party at a Crossroads

The debate over the 2028 primary calendar comes at a time of introspection for the Democratic Party. After losing the 2024 presidential election to Donald Trump, party leaders are grappling with how best to represent their base and rebuild a winning coalition. The choice of which state votes first is more than procedural—it reflects the party’s values and strategic priorities.

As the DNC prepares to revisit the primary calendar, the competition among states is intensifying. With no incumbent president to dictate the order, the process is expected to be more open—and more contentious—than in 2024.

References

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• Before they name a 2028 nominee, Democrats will have to decide which state will weigh in first
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• Wes Moore steps into a Democratic presidential spotlight