US and China Announce 90-Day Tariff Ceasefire; The $6.5 Trillion in US Treasury Bonds Maturing in June Attracts Market Attention

Taiwan • Business • 05/14 15:25
US and China Announce 90-Day Tariff Ceasefire; The $6.5 Trillion in US Treasury Bonds Maturing in June Attracts Market Attention

On May 14, 2025, following the economic and trade talks between the US and China in Geneva, the announcement of a 90-day tariff truce was made. The US will lower tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, and China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10%. The US's $6.5 trillion national debt is due to mature in June, raising concerns in the market about the risk of default. Experts believe the chances of a US debt collapse are low but advise investors to monitor exchange rate fluctuations and risks related to capital flows.

Key Updates

7h ago

Walmart's announcement of a price increase at the end of May, due to the new US tariff policy, led to a 4% drop in its stock price.

On May 15th, 2025, American retail giant Walmart announced that due to the Trump administration's new tariff policy, the company will raise the prices of some products starting from the end of May. CEO Doug McMillon stated that in the face of import tariffs as high as 30%, the company cannot fully absorb the cost pressures. After the announcement, Walmart's stock price fell more than 4% in early New York trading.

23h ago

Jim Cramer, a financial commentator, says Walmart shows resilience amid the pressure of US-China tariffs.

Well-known financial commentator Jim Cramer mentioned on CNBC that despite the high tariffs imposed by the United States on Chinese goods, Walmart and two unnamed retailers remain competitive. Walmart reported earnings of 61 cents per share in the first fiscal quarter of 2025, which exceeded expectations. Walmart tackled tariff pressures by adjusting its product mix and maintaining supply chain flexibility. Its advertising and subscription services offer additional revenue streams, with approximately two-thirds of its products being sourced from the United States, which helps reduce the impact of import tariffs.

05/15 18:56

U.S. and China Reach Tariff Agreement: Talks in Geneva Lead to Substantial Tariff Reductions, Alleviating Pressure on U.S. Consumers and Finances

In the middle of May 2025, during high-level talks in Geneva, Switzerland, the US and China reached an agreement on tariffs, temporarily easing the trade tensions that had been ongoing since early April. The US reduced tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China reduced tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10%. This 90-day agreement aims to alleviate pressure on US consumers and financial market volatility, and create room for further bilateral trade negotiations.

05/15 04:56

The tariff truce between the US and China has caused a 300% increase in container bookings between the US and China, and Hapag-Lloyd anticipates continued growth in volume.

On May 12, 2025, the United States and China reached a 90-day tariff ceasefire agreement, substantially lowering punitive tariffs, resulting in a rebound in the trans-Pacific shipping market. According to Vizion data, container bookings for imports from China to the U.S. surged by nearly 300% within a week after the agreement took effect. Hapag-Lloyd reported that bookings on U.S. routes increased by 50% compared to the same period the previous week, and transportation demand is expected to continue rising in the coming weeks, reflecting the swift release of trade demand that had been stifled by high tariffs.

05/14 18:27

Revealing the Share of Chinese-Made Products in the US Market: Dependence on Imports Ranging from Everyday Items to Home Appliances

Data from the United States International Trade Commission and the Department of Commerce shows that even amid U.S.-China trade tensions and high tariffs, China remains one of the major sources of imports for the United States. In 2024, a significant portion of home goods imported by the U.S. were made in China, including 90% of cookware, 66% of tableware, and 87% of refrigerators. As of March 2025, China was the third-largest source of imports for the U.S., with total imports exceeding $1030 billion. Despite the impact of tariffs, China's leading position in the U.S. market remains unshaken, indicating the U.S.'s dependence on Chinese manufacturing.

05/14 15:25

US and China Announce 90-Day Tariff Ceasefire; The $6.5 Trillion in US Treasury Bonds Maturing in June Attracts Market Attention

On May 14, 2025, following the economic and trade talks between the US and China in Geneva, the announcement of a 90-day tariff truce was made. The US will lower tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, and China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10%. The US's $6.5 trillion national debt is due to mature in June, raising concerns in the market about the risk of default. Experts believe the chances of a US debt collapse are low but advise investors to monitor exchange rate fluctuations and risks related to capital flows.

05/14 10:59

US and China Reach a Temporary Tariff Agreement, Beijing Lifts Ban on Boeing, Market Reacts with Caution

On May 14, 2025, the US and China reached a 90-day agreement on tariffs in Geneva, agreeing to significantly lower punitive tariffs. The Chinese government subsequently lifted the ban on receiving Boeing aircraft, allowing the resumption of deliveries and easing Boeing's delivery crisis in the Chinese market. However, experts note that the core issues of the trade war remain unresolved, and businesses still face uncertainty.

05/14 02:25

Inflation pressure in the U.S. is easing, but the impact of tariffs has not yet been observed. Forecasters are warning of potential price increases in May or June.

April inflation data in the U.S. indicates that the annual growth rate has dropped to 2.3%, marking a four-year low, which is below expectations. However, economists believe that the Trump administration's high tariff policies have not yet been fully reflected in prices, due to companies stockpiling inventories and the lagging effects of tariffs. The impact is expected to become evident in May or June. Federal Reserve officials remain cautiously watchful of future price trends, and the market is closely monitoring upcoming data to assess the impact of tariffs.

05/14 01:54

CNBC commentator Jim Cramer breaks down the effects of Trump's temporary tariff delay policy on the market's rebound.

Former President of the United States, Donald Trump, announced a temporary suspension of new tariff measures on China and other trade partners, which led to a market rebound. CNBC commentator Jim Cramer analyzed this policy reversal, pointing out that tech stocks benefited and market expectations were disrupted. Cramer described it as a "game of chicken without any winners," posing risks for short-term traders and highlighting the subtle interaction between policy and the market. This move might be intended to avoid an economic slowdown caused by tariffs, which could impact the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates. The tariff pressure on businesses has been temporarily eased, and limited market supply and strong earnings reports also contributed to the stock market rebound.

05/14 01:54

U.S. inflation dropped to 2.3% in April, easing concerns over stagflation and leading to expectations of interest rate cuts.

According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on May 13, 2025, the annual CPI increase rate for April dropped to 2.3%, the lowest level since February 2021, which was below the expected 2.4%. The core CPI annual increase rate stayed at 2.8%, meeting expectations. This data shows that inflation has been slowing for three consecutive months, raising market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, temporarily easing the risk of stagflation. However, uncertainty surrounding tariff policies could still impact future inflation trends.

US-China Tariff Reductions: From Confrontation to Temporary Truce

After months of trade tensions, the United States and China reached an agreement on May 12, announcing that from 12:01 a.m. on May 14, both sides would significantly reduce the additional tariffs on each other's goods and suspend certain tariff measures for 90 days. According to the announcement by China's State Council Tariff Commission, China will reduce the previously imposed 34% tariff on American goods to 10% and suspend the implementation of a 24% rate. Meanwhile, the United States, following a White House executive order, will lower the overall tariff on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.

The agreement covers a wide range, including not only bulk commodities but also small parcel imports (de minimis) relied upon by e-commerce platforms like Shein and Temu. According to the executive order issued by the US White House, for Chinese small parcels valued under $800, the US will reduce the ad valorem tax rate from 120% to 54%, maintain a $100 per item specific tax, and cancel the plan to increase it to $200 on June 1. Courier companies like UPS, FedEx, and DHL have set the actual tax rate for such parcels at 30%, reflecting the latest consensus after US-China negotiations.

A spokesperson for China's Ministry of Commerce stated that this tariff adjustment aligns with the common interests of producers and consumers in both countries and helps stabilize the global supply chain. China urges the US to take this opportunity to thoroughly correct the wrong practice of unilateral tariff increases and promote the healthy development of US-China economic and trade relations.

U.S. $6.5 Trillion National Debt Maturing in June: Market Focuses on Default Risk

At the same time, the United States Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that by 2025, the United States government will need to refinance up to $9.2 trillion in national debt, with $6.5 trillion maturing in June. This massive wave of maturities has raised concerns in the market about potential technical defaults, especially as Congress has yet to reach a consensus on the debt ceiling.

According to data from the US Treasury Department, the total U.S. debt has exceeded $36 trillion, accounting for more than 120% of GDP. For a long time, the US government has relied on "borrowing new to repay old" to maintain fiscal operations, but as major overseas debt holders like China and Japan gradually reduce their US debt holdings, market confidence in US debt is being tested.

Nevertheless, experts generally believe that the possibility of a US debt collapse is low. Wu Daren, a professor of economics at Central University, pointed out, "The US government pays over a trillion dollars in interest alone each year, but as long as the global market continues to trust the dollar, the risk of US debt default is not high. Even if there is a debt ceiling issue, Congress will eventually relax the restrictions to avoid a real default."

Expert Advice: Focus on Exchange Rate and Capital Flow Risks

Facing the $6.5 trillion national debt maturing in June, market risk aversion has increased, and bond yields have risen rapidly. Fubon Securities Investment Trust Co. Chairman Chen Yiguang pointed out that in addition to the delayed timing of interest rate cuts and unresolved inflationary pressures, the reactivation of high tariff policies by the Trump administration has also heightened market sensitivity to policy risks. He suggests that investors prioritize short-duration bonds to reduce interest rate volatility risk and flexibly allocate non-dollar-denominated assets to diversify exchange rate risk.

Additionally, the recent weakening of the US dollar index has prompted some investors to turn to European or emerging market bonds for better returns. An investor named Shirley shared her experience, stating, "I keep some cash on hand, but the rest I invest regularly in the stock or bond market to give my assets a chance to hedge against inflation."

Experts remind investors that in the face of rising political and economic uncertainty, investment strategies should consider short, medium, and long-term factors and be flexible. In the short term, focus on stable returns, in the medium term, pay attention to the pace of Federal Reserve policy shifts, and in the long term, trust in the growth trend of asset value.

References

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