US stocks are mixed: Employment data is steady, IMF cuts global growth forecast; US-South Korea forex talks lead to Korean won fluctuations
On May 16, 2025, the major indices of the U.S. stock market had mixed performances, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.65% and the S&P 500 Index by 0.41%, while the Nasdaq Index fell by 0.18%. The U.S. non-farm employment report for April showed an increase of 177,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%. The IMF downgraded the 2025 global economic growth forecast to 2.8%, citing U.S. tariff policies as the reason. The U.S.-South Korea foreign exchange policy talks led to fluctuations in the Korean won, and the appreciation of the New Taiwan dollar attracted attention, though the Taiwan-U.S. tariff negotiations did not address exchange rate issues.
Key Updates
05/15 22:55
US stocks are mixed: Employment data is steady, IMF cuts global growth forecast; US-South Korea forex talks lead to Korean won fluctuations
On May 16, 2025, the major indices of the U.S. stock market had mixed performances, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.65% and the S&P 500 Index by 0.41%, while the Nasdaq Index fell by 0.18%. The U.S. non-farm employment report for April showed an increase of 177,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%. The IMF downgraded the 2025 global economic growth forecast to 2.8%, citing U.S. tariff policies as the reason. The U.S.-South Korea foreign exchange policy talks led to fluctuations in the Korean won, and the appreciation of the New Taiwan dollar attracted attention, though the Taiwan-U.S. tariff negotiations did not address exchange rate issues.
Mixed Performance of Major U.S. Stock Indices
On May 15, the three major U.S. stock indices showed varied trends. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 271.69 points, closing at 42,322.75 points, an increase of 0.65%. The S&P 500 Index rose by 24.35 points, closing at 5,916.93 points, an increase of 0.41%. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 34.49 points, closing at 19,112.32 points, a decrease of 0.18%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index also fell by 0.57%, closing at 4,932.45 points.
This week, the S&P 500 Index has risen for four consecutive trading days, with a weekly increase of 4.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 2.6% for the week, while the Nasdaq Index increased by 6.6%. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 Index has risen by 0.6%, the Dow has fallen by 0.5%, and the Nasdaq has decreased by 1%.
U.S. Employment Data Shows Robust Labor Market
The U.S. Department of Labor's April non-farm payroll report showed an increase of 177,000 jobs for the month, better than the market expectation of 133,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, unchanged from March. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-over-month, slightly below the expected 0.3%.
Additionally, the ADP private employment report showed that private sector job growth in April was only 62,000, the smallest increase since July 2024, far below the expected 115,000. The education, health services, information, and professional business services sectors saw a decrease in employment.
For the week ending May 10, the number of initial unemployment claims was 229,000, unchanged from the previous week and in line with expectations. The number of continuing unemployment claims was 1.881 million, slightly higher than the previous week. The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2%.
IMF Lowers Global and U.S. Economic Growth Forecasts
In the World Economic Outlook report released on April 22, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.8%, marking a new low since the pandemic. The report pointed out that U.S. tariff policies and their uncertainty are among the main reasons for the downgrade.
The IMF also lowered the U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.7% to 1.8%. The report noted that tariff policies led companies to stockpile imported goods in advance, coupled with weak consumer spending, resulting in a 0.3% annual decline in U.S. GDP in the first quarter, the first contraction in three years.
U.S.-South Korea Forex Policy Talks Cause Korean Won Fluctuations
In early May, U.S. and South Korean officials held foreign exchange policy talks in Milan, Italy. South Korea's Deputy Minister of Finance Choi Ji-young and U.S. Assistant Secretary of the Treasury Capros exchanged views on the principles of managing their respective foreign exchange markets and agreed to continue discussions.
After the news was released, the Korean won experienced significant fluctuations against the U.S. dollar. On May 14, it appreciated to 1,389.60 won per dollar during trading, reaching a recent high, and finally closed at 1,402.48 won. The next day, the won depreciated to 1,410.9 won at the opening. Market expectations of a potential weak dollar policy by the U.S. further fueled the appreciation of Asian currencies.
Although the U.S. Treasury has not formally included exchange rate policies in trade agreements, the market generally believes that the U.S. may use pressure on other countries' currencies to appreciate as a bargaining chip.
Taiwan-U.S. Tariff Talks Do Not Address Exchange Rate Issues
Recently, the New Taiwan dollar has shown significant appreciation against the U.S. dollar, rising from over 33 to the 30 mark since early May, attracting market attention. In response, Taiwan's Minister of Finance Chuang Tsui-yun stated in Taiwan's Legislative Yuan that Taiwan-U.S. tariff talks have not involved exchange rate issues.
She pointed out that Deputy Premier Cheng Li-chun has led a delegation to the U.S. for preliminary consultations, and the government will strive for the best conditions while maintaining industrial competitiveness. Regarding the impact of the New Taiwan dollar's appreciation on exports, Chuang Tsui-yun stated that exchange rate fluctuations are the result of market supply and demand, and the central bank will continue to monitor and respond appropriately.
