JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, in Paris, warns about recession risks, and the uncertainty surrounding US-China trade negotiations is impacting US stock performance.
On May 15, 2025, JPMorgan Chase's CEO, Jamie Dimon, warned at the Global Markets Conference in Paris that despite the easing of US-China tariff tensions, global economic uncertainties and recession risks still exist. Progress in the US-China trade negotiations has been limited, and market sentiment is cautious. On that day, the performance of US stocks was mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 271 points, the S&P 500 closing higher for the fourth consecutive day, while the Nasdaq and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index experienced slight declines.
Key Updates
05/16 01:24
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, in Paris, warns about recession risks, and the uncertainty surrounding US-China trade negotiations is impacting US stock performance.
On May 15, 2025, JPMorgan Chase's CEO, Jamie Dimon, warned at the Global Markets Conference in Paris that despite the easing of US-China tariff tensions, global economic uncertainties and recession risks still exist. Progress in the US-China trade negotiations has been limited, and market sentiment is cautious. On that day, the performance of US stocks was mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 271 points, the S&P 500 closing higher for the fourth consecutive day, while the Nasdaq and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index experienced slight declines.
Dimon: Tariff Impact Persists, Recession Risks Remain
During an interview with Bloomberg TV at JPMorgan's annual global market conference in Paris, Dimon stated that while he hopes to avoid it, he cannot completely rule out the possibility of an economic recession. He noted, "If a recession does occur, I cannot predict how severe or how long it will last." He emphasized that the global economy is still feeling the impact of U.S. tariff policies, which have led to a slowdown in corporate investment activities and increased market volatility.
Dimon pointed out that although the recent U.S.-China agreement to temporarily reduce tariffs for 90 days provides temporary relief, it does not solve the fundamental issues. He urged U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to expedite the negotiation process to reduce the market disruptions caused by policy uncertainty.
Limited Progress in U.S.-China Trade Talks, Market Reaction Cautious
According to Deutsche Welle, U.S. and Chinese trade representatives met again on May 15 at the APEC trade ministers' meeting in Jeju Island, South Korea, continuing the high-level talks from earlier this month in Geneva. Both sides agreed to significantly lower the tariffs imposed on each other within the next 90 days, with the U.S. reducing tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, and China lowering tariffs on U.S. goods to 10%. However, the details of the talks were not disclosed, and the market remains cautious.
The mainland and Hong Kong stock markets showed a muted reaction to the progress in the talks. Although the CSI 300 Index rose consecutively this week, the gains were limited; the Hang Seng Index had mixed performance. Investors remain wary of the erratic trade policies since 2018 and are skeptical about whether the talks can bring long-term stability.
Additionally, the APEC organization has downgraded its economic growth forecast for the Asia-Pacific region in 2025 from 3.3% to 2.6%, warning that regional export growth will slow significantly, indicating that the impact of trade frictions on the global supply chain is ongoing.
U.S. Stocks Show Mixed Performance on May 15, Dow and S&P Close Higher
Amid economic and policy uncertainties, the four major U.S. stock indices had mixed results at the close on May 15. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 271.69 points, or 0.65%, to close at 42,322.75 points; the S&P 500 Index rose 24.35 points, or 0.41%, to close at 5,916.93 points, marking the fourth consecutive day of gains. In contrast, the Nasdaq Index fell 34.49 points, or 0.18%, to close at 19,112.32 points; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 28.28 points, or 0.57%, to close at 4,932.45 points.
Technology stocks were mostly under pressure, with the NYSE FANG+ Index down 0.35%. Meta fell 2.35%, Amazon fell 2.42%, Alphabet and Apple fell 0.85% and 0.41% respectively, while Microsoft rose slightly by 0.23%. The semiconductor sector also performed weakly, with AMD down 2.32%, and Nvidia and Qualcomm down 0.38% and 0.24% respectively.
On the other hand, Cisco's stock price increased by 4.85% following better-than-expected earnings, making it the best performer among the Dow components. The company's third-quarter revenue reached $14.15 billion, exceeding market expectations, and it raised its full-year revenue forecast.
Economic Data and Bond Market Trends
The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for April showed an annual growth rate of 2.4%, below the expected 2.5%, with a monthly decline of 0.5%, the largest single-month drop in five years. The core PPI annual growth rate was 3.1%, with a monthly decline of 0.4%. Additionally, April retail sales showed a monthly growth rate of only 0.1%, slightly above expectations but far below the previous value of 1.7%.
These figures suggest that inflationary pressures have eased, and market expectations for the Federal Reserve's future policy direction have adjusted. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 9 basis points to 4.44%, indicating an increase in market risk appetite.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the Fed is reviewing its monetary policy framework, expected to be completed by August to September. He noted that future inflation may be more volatile than in the past, and supply shocks may be more frequent, posing challenges to the central bank.
