2025 U.S. Tariff Surge: Small and Medium-sized Businesses Feeling the Strain, Graduates Confronting Challenges

In April 2025, President Trump of the United States imposed a 145% tariff increase on Chinese goods and maintained a 10% tariff on goods from most trade partners, causing global market fluctuations, a decline in U.S. stock markets, and a spike in gold prices. Import costs for U.S. small and medium-sized businesses rose, intensifying supply chain pressures. However, experts believe a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis is unlikely in the near term. Recent graduates, facing an uncertain job market, demonstrate readiness and adaptability, actively tackling challenges.

Tariff Policy Triggers Market Turmoil

In early April, the Trump administration announced a 145% tariff increase on Chinese goods and maintained a 10% comprehensive tariff on other countries, with a 90-day delay to facilitate negotiations. This policy's repeated changes have shaken market confidence. On April 10, all three major U.S. stock indices fell, with the S&P 500 dropping 3.46%, the Dow Jones dropping over a thousand points, and the Nasdaq down 4.31%. Gold prices soared to $3,170 per ounce, a historic high, while the dollar weakened against major currencies.

Market strategist Art Hogan noted, "Even with the tariff suspension, the real issues remain unresolved, and this rebound might just be an overly optimistic response." Investors turned to safe-haven assets, boosting demand for bonds, with the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note falling to 4.386%.

Small and Medium Enterprises Bear the Brunt: Cost Pressure and Supply Chain Dilemmas

U.S. small and medium enterprises have reacted strongly to the tariff policy. According to a survey by Alignable, 57% of small retailers expect revenue to decline due to tariffs, and nearly 70% believe trade policy uncertainty will persist until the end of the year. Many businesses face dual pressures of rising costs for importing raw materials and finished goods.

Greg Shugar, CEO of Vermont bow tie brand Beau Ties, admitted, "We are facing two headwinds: significantly rising costs and declining consumption." Amazon CEO Andy Jassy also pointed out that third-party sellers will have to pass tariff costs onto consumers, leading to higher product prices.

Joe Novak, who runs a toy store in Los Angeles, stated that 90% of his store's products come from China, and facing a 145% tariff, it's nearly impossible to continue operating. He said, "The U.S. simply doesn't have the toy manufacturing infrastructure, and this isn't a problem that can be solved in a few months."

International Supply Chains Disrupted, Pressure for Industry Transformation Increases

It's not just the retail sector; manufacturing and construction are also affected. The U.S. real estate market relies on imported building materials from Canada, Mexico, and China, such as lumber and partition materials. Realtor.com economist Joel Berner noted, "Rising construction costs will be passed on to consumers, affecting home prices and buying intentions."

Jaguar Land Rover has announced a suspension of exports to the U.S., and the UK automotive and whiskey industries face similar predicaments. The Scotch Whisky Association estimated that when the U.S. imposed a 25% tariff in 2019, the industry lost £600 million within 18 months.

Graduate Job Market: Challenges and Preparations Coexist

Despite the unstable economic environment, recent graduates are showing a high degree of career planning and flexibility. Taiwanese student Hsu Shao-yu stated, "As long as you have a portfolio and internship experience, finding a job won't be like starting from scratch." He pointed out that Taiwan is currently experiencing a labor shortage, so large-scale unemployment is unlikely in the short term.

Job bank spokesperson Tseng Chung-wei suggested that job seekers could turn to domestic demand industries such as healthcare, catering, and hospitality, which are experiencing labor shortages, to seek stable opportunities. Academia Sinica economist Hsu Wen-tai also believes that Taiwan, along with Vietnam, South Korea, and Japan, being included in the same tariff framework, could actually benefit Taiwan's exports.

However, the employment situation for graduates from prestigious U.S. MBA programs is not as favorable as before. Among Harvard Business School's spring 2024 graduates, 23% were still unemployed three months after graduation, up from 20% in 2023. Large companies like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft have reduced MBA hiring, reflecting a tightening of the high-level job market.

Expert Observation: Unlikely to Repeat the 2008 Financial Crisis in the Short Term

Despite the severe market fluctuations, experts generally believe the current situation differs from the 2008 financial crisis. Academia Sinica researcher Hsu Wen-tai pointed out, "There won't be a significant impact in the short term; the long-term effects will depend on the outcomes of the negotiations." The unemployment rate announced by the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics for February was 3.34%, still the lowest for the same month in 25 years, indicating that the labor market remains resilient.

Reports from Deloitte and the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) indicate that although the small business confidence index has declined for three consecutive months, there has not been a large-scale wave of layoffs. Experts emphasize that the current challenges mainly stem from policy uncertainty and supply chain restructuring, rather than a collapse of the financial system.

References

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