U.S.-China Trade War Heats Up: Trump Announces 90-Day Tariff Delay, Causing Volatility in Taiwan and U.S. Stock Markets

TaiwanBusiness04/11 22:39
U.S.-China Trade War Heats Up: Trump Announces 90-Day Tariff Delay, Causing Volatility in Taiwan and U.S. Stock Markets

On April 9, President Trump of the United States announced a 90-day suspension of high tariffs for most trade partners, imposing only a 10% baseline tariff. However, tariffs on Chinese goods were raised to 145%, escalating tensions in the U.S.-China trade war. This move caused turmoil in global financial markets, leading to significant drops in both U.S. and Taiwanese stock markets. Officials from the Federal Reserve pledged to stabilize the markets, and the House of Representatives passed a budget resolution paving the way for extending tax cuts, which raised concerns about fiscal stability. The Taiwanese government launched an 88 billion NT export support plan to address potential threats.

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04/11 22:39

U.S.-China Trade War Heats Up: Trump Announces 90-Day Tariff Delay, Causing Volatility in Taiwan and U.S. Stock Markets

On April 9, President Trump of the United States announced a 90-day suspension of high tariffs for most trade partners, imposing only a 10% baseline tariff. However, tariffs on Chinese goods were raised to 145%, escalating tensions in the U.S.-China trade war. This move caused turmoil in global financial markets, leading to significant drops in both U.S. and Taiwanese stock markets. Officials from the Federal Reserve pledged to stabilize the markets, and the House of Representatives passed a budget resolution paving the way for extending tax cuts, which raised concerns about fiscal stability. The Taiwanese government launched an 88 billion NT export support plan to address potential threats.

Trump's Tariff Policy U-Turn: 90-Day Suspension and China Excluded

In the early hours of April 9, U.S. time, the Trump administration officially launched a "reciprocal tariffs" policy against multiple countries worldwide, imposing high tariffs ranging from 20% to 46% on goods from 60 countries, including Taiwan, the EU, Japan, and South Korea. However, just 13 hours later, Trump suddenly announced in the afternoon that, given that more than 75 countries had expressed a willingness to negotiate, he decided to suspend the high tariffs for 90 days, during which only a 10% baseline tariff rate would be applied.

China, however, was excluded from the suspension list. Trump accused China of "disrespecting the global market" and announced a 125% tariff on Chinese goods, adding a previous 20% punitive tariff imposed due to the fentanyl issue, bringing the total tariff rate to 145%. The White House later confirmed this figure and emphasized that the measure would take effect immediately.

China quickly retaliated by announcing retaliatory tariffs of up to 125% on U.S. goods and sanctioning 18 U.S. military-industrial companies. A spokesperson for China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs criticized the U.S. actions as "regressive" and stated, "We will not back down."

Global Market Turmoil: Taiwan and U.S. Stock Markets Drop Sharply and Rebound

Trump's policy U-turn caused significant market volatility. U.S. stocks dropped sharply on April 9 and 10, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing over $6 trillion in market value over two days. On the 10th, the Dow fell 2.5%, the S&P 500 dropped 3.46%, the Nasdaq plunged 4.31%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index tumbled 7.97%. TSMC's ADR fell 4.8%.

The Taiwan stock market was also affected, opening on the 11th with a drop of over 580 points, briefly falling below 18,500 points, setting a record for the largest single-day fluctuation. However, as the market digested the news of Trump's tariff suspension, coupled with a strong rebound in traditional and shipping stocks, the Taiwan stock market eventually recovered some of its losses. The previous day (10th), the Taiwan stock market had surged by 1,608 points due to the suspension order, setting a record for the largest point and percentage increase.

Federal Reserve Steps In: Inflation Pressure Below Expectations, Will Stabilize Market

In response to market turmoil, U.S. Federal Reserve officials made public statements. Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Collins stated that in the event of market chaos, the Fed will use policy tools to stabilize the financial system. She noted that the current interest rate level will be maintained for some time to achieve a 3% inflation target.

New York Federal Reserve Bank President Williams pointed out that uncertainty in tariff and immigration policies is undermining consumer and business confidence, predicting that U.S. GDP growth will slow to below 1%, and the unemployment rate may rise to 4.5% to 5%. He emphasized that the Fed will closely monitor inflation expectations and maintain policy flexibility.

The latest March U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, the lowest increase in nearly four years; the core PPI increased by 3.3%, also below expectations. Although short-term inflation data is easing, the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index fell to 50.8, the second-lowest in history, indicating continued market concerns about the future.

House Passes Budget Resolution, Tax Cut Bill Enters Substantive Review

Meanwhile, on April 11, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a budget resolution by a vote of 216 to 214, paving the way for extending the "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act" (TCJA) from Trump's term. The resolution will serve as the basis for the budget reconciliation process, allowing Congress to pass tax reform legislation without Democratic support.

According to the House Ways and Means Committee, if the current tax cuts are not extended, a family of four with an annual income of $80,610 will face a tax increase of $1,695. Republicans argue that extending the tax cuts will help stimulate the economy and consolidate voter support.

However, the budget also includes spending cuts of up to $1.5 trillion, which could affect social welfare programs such as Medicaid, raising concerns among some moderate party members. The market is also worried that with high tariffs and tax cuts in parallel, the U.S. fiscal deficit may further expand, affecting the stability of the national debt market.

Taiwan Government Launches NT$88 Billion Export Support Plan

Facing the threat of a 32% U.S. tariff on Taiwan, which is temporarily suspended but still poses a threat, Taiwan's Executive Yuan approved an NT$88 billion "Export Supply Chain Support Plan" proposed by the Ministry of Economic Affairs on April 10. The plan covers four major directions: loan subsidies, industrial upgrades, market diversification, and other measures. President Lai Ching-te emphasized that the 90-day "golden window for negotiations" will be used to strive for the greatest national interest.

Additionally, the Ministry of Finance is considering extending the tax filing deadline, similar to the COVID-19 pandemic period, to alleviate short-term financial pressure on businesses. The Ministry of Economic Affairs stated that 20 industry response measures will continue to be promoted and will flexibly respond to subsequent U.S. policy adjustments.

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