Trump's Tariff Policy Hits Apple: iPhone Costs Skyrocket, Stock Price Drops 15% Before Receiving Temporary Exemption

TaiwanBusiness04/13 07:08
Trump's Tariff Policy Hits Apple: iPhone Costs Skyrocket, Stock Price Drops 15% Before Receiving Temporary Exemption

In early April 2025, President Trump of the United States imposed a 145% punitive tariff on Chinese goods, while the majority of countries worldwide imposed an additional 10% basic tariff. Apple faced cost pressures since 90% of iPhones are manufactured in China. Analysts estimated that if the iPhone production line were relocated to the U.S., the price could skyrocket to $3,000. Apple's stock price fell by 15%, resulting in a $500 billion loss in market value. On April 11, the Trump administration announced a temporary tariff exemption for products including smartphones, offering Apple short-term relief.

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04/13 07:08

Trump's Tariff Policy Hits Apple: iPhone Costs Skyrocket, Stock Price Drops 15% Before Receiving Temporary Exemption

In early April 2025, President Trump of the United States imposed a 145% punitive tariff on Chinese goods, while the majority of countries worldwide imposed an additional 10% basic tariff. Apple faced cost pressures since 90% of iPhones are manufactured in China. Analysts estimated that if the iPhone production line were relocated to the U.S., the price could skyrocket to $3,000. Apple's stock price fell by 15%, resulting in a $500 billion loss in market value. On April 11, the Trump administration announced a temporary tariff exemption for products including smartphones, offering Apple short-term relief.

iPhone Made in the US Could Cost Up to $3,000

The Trump administration hopes to bring manufacturing back to the US through high tariff policies, with Apple being one of the key targets. However, analysts generally believe that moving the iPhone production line back to the US is almost unfeasible. Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives bluntly stated, "The idea of producing iPhones in the US simply doesn't work." He estimates that if iPhones were manufactured in the US, the price would soar from the current $1,000 to over $3,000.

Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan pointed out that labor costs alone would increase the price of the iPhone 16 Pro from $1,199 to $1,500. When adding import tariffs on components and logistics costs, the price of the iPhone 16 Pro Max could rise by 91% to $3,050. According to reports, the hourly wage for Chinese workers is about $3.6, while the minimum wage in California is $16.50, a nearly fivefold difference in labor costs.

Supply Chain Shift Highly Difficult, Unlikely Before 2028

Since the 1990s, Apple has established a vast supply chain in China, covering hundreds of component suppliers and millions of skilled workers. Analysts point out that the US lacks sufficient technical workers and manufacturing infrastructure to support the high-efficiency production of iPhones. Apple CEO Tim Cook once said, "In China, you can find enough technical talent to fill several football fields; in the US, it's hard to fill even one."

Even if Apple initiates a plan to return to the US, analysts estimate that the transition won't be completed until 2028 at the earliest. Former Apple manufacturing engineer Matthew Moore noted that the US lacks the engineering support and manufacturing ecosystem needed to operate large factories, leading to high and time-consuming transition costs.

Tariff Pressure Leads to Stock Price Plunge

Since Trump announced a new round of tariffs on April 2, Apple's stock price has fallen by 15%, wiping out $500 billion in market value. The market is concerned that Apple will be forced to raise product prices to pass on costs, affecting sales performance. According to Rosenblatt Securities, if Apple passes the costs to consumers, the price of the basic iPhone 16 will rise from $799 to $1,142, and the iPhone 16 Pro Max could soar from $1,599 to $2,300.

Additionally, analysts warn that if Apple raises prices, it may weaken its competitiveness in the US market, giving an advantage to South Korea's Samsung Electronics, which faces lighter tariff burdens.

Exemption List Announced, Apple Temporarily Relieved

Amid strong backlash from the industry and investors, the US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) announced a list of 20 product exemptions on April 11, covering smartphones, laptops, semiconductor components, and manufacturing equipment. Apple's core products, including iPhone, iPad, MacBook, and Apple Watch, are all on the exemption list, effective retroactively from April 5.

This exemption avoids the scenario of iPhone prices doubling to $3,000, offering Apple short-term financial relief. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives called this move "a dream scenario for tech investors," while Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani stated, "This is a significant victory for Apple."

However, some products like AirPods and HomePod still need to pay tariffs, and whether the exemption scope will be expanded in the future remains to be seen.

Details of Exemption List: Smartphones and Semiconductor Components Included

According to the CBP announcement, the following products are included in the exemption list:

  • 8471: Automatic data processing machines (computers, servers, laptops, etc.)
  • 8473.30: Parts for data processing equipment (including storage devices, power modules)
  • 8486: Equipment for semiconductor manufacturing (such as lithography machines, etching machines)
  • 8517.13.00: Smartphones
  • 8523.51.00: Solid-state storage devices (such as SSDs, flash memory)
  • 8528.52.00: Displays (LCD, OLED screens)
  • 8541.49.70: CMOS image sensors (including mobile phone camera modules)

These products are mostly core components and end devices for Apple products, and the exemption helps Apple maintain its current pricing structure, avoiding significant price hikes.

Apple's Short-term Strategy: Diversifying Supply Chain and Relying on Service Revenue

Facing tariff uncertainties, Apple has been gradually diversifying its supply chain in recent years, with some iPhones already assembled in India and other products manufactured in Vietnam. Additionally, Apple's service business (such as the App Store, iCloud, Apple Music) generated $96 billion in revenue in the last fiscal year, unaffected by tariffs, serving as a buffer against rising costs.

Nevertheless, analysts generally believe that if tariff policies continue to change, Apple will need to continuously adjust its supply chain strategy to cope with potential future cost pressures.

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