In 2025, the US-China trade war escalated: China restricts rare earth exports, the US begins deep-sea mining operations, Taiwan's supply chain comes under pressure, gold prices skyrocket, and Brazilian soybean exports see gains.

TaiwanBusiness04/13 08:37
In 2025, the US-China trade war escalated: China restricts rare earth exports, the US begins deep-sea mining operations, Taiwan's supply chain comes under pressure, gold prices skyrocket, and Brazilian soybean exports see gains.

In April 2025, the US-China trade war intensified as China imposed export controls on several rare earth elements in retaliation for the US's 145% tariffs. U.S. President Trump plans to launch deep-sea mining and metal reserve initiatives to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earths. Taiwan's semiconductor supply chain faces risks. Market aversion to risk has driven gold prices up to $3,200 per ounce, and expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have risen. China has shifted to purchasing soybeans from Brazil, benefiting Brazilian exports.

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04/13 08:37

In 2025, the US-China trade war escalated: China restricts rare earth exports, the US begins deep-sea mining operations, Taiwan's supply chain comes under pressure, gold prices skyrocket, and Brazilian soybean exports see gains.

In April 2025, the US-China trade war intensified as China imposed export controls on several rare earth elements in retaliation for the US's 145% tariffs. U.S. President Trump plans to launch deep-sea mining and metal reserve initiatives to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earths. Taiwan's semiconductor supply chain faces risks. Market aversion to risk has driven gold prices up to $3,200 per ounce, and expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have risen. China has shifted to purchasing soybeans from Brazil, benefiting Brazilian exports.

China Restricts Rare Earth Exports, Countering US High Tariffs

In early April 2025, China announced export restrictions on seven types of medium and heavy rare earth elements and their related compounds, including Samarium, Gadolinium, Terbium, Dysprosium, Lutetium, Scandium, and Yttrium. These rare earth elements are widely used in defense, electric vehicles, clean energy, and electronic products, serving as key raw materials for the US high-tech industry.

Additionally, as early as December 2023, China had restricted the export of rare earth processing technology and, by December 2024, banned the export of critical semiconductor elements such as Gallium, Germanium, and Antimony to the US. These measures are seen as a direct counter to the US's 145% tariff policy.

US Plans to Launch Deep-Sea Mining and Metal Reserve Program

Facing China's dominance in the rare earth supply chain, the US government is drafting an executive order to allow the mining of metal minerals on the Pacific seabed and establish a national strategic reserve. These deep-sea metal nodules are rich in nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese, and may contain trace amounts of rare earth elements, which are crucial for the battery, military, and electronics industries.

According to the Financial Times, the reserve program will establish a large stockpile of metal nodules within the US to prepare for potential import disruptions in the event of a conflict with China. The US National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) also requires the Department of Defense to study the feasibility of deep-sea mining and establish onshore processing capabilities. Prominent Republicans like Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz have expressed their support.

Taiwan's Supply Chain Faces Potential Risks

As a major hub of the global semiconductor industry, especially with TSMC playing a critical role in the global chip supply chain, Taiwan is facing pressure from the escalating US-China trade war. Although the US has temporarily exempted computers, smartphones, and chips from tariffs to mitigate the impact on American companies like Apple and Dell, experts point out that this is merely a temporary measure to buy time for the supply chain to move out of China, not a permanent solution.

Recently, Taiwan and the US have begun their first-ever tariff negotiations, discussing a 32% tariff and proposing zero tariffs and expanded investment plans. Nevertheless, if the US-China conflict escalates, Taiwan could become a risk focal point due to geopolitical and supply chain restructuring.

Gold Prices Surge Past $3,200, Fed Rate Cut Expectations Rise

As the trade war intensifies and the dollar weakens, market risk aversion has surged, with international gold prices breaking through $3,200 per ounce on April 10, 2025, reaching a record high of $3,245.28. Asian spot gold prices briefly hit $3,215.73, while New York futures gold prices rose to $3,244.6.

The unexpected decline in the US March CPI and core CPI data, coupled with better-than-expected initial jobless claims, has heightened market expectations for a Fed rate cut in June, further boosting gold prices. ETF inflows also indicate strong investor demand for gold, with the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR, increasing its holdings by 12.62 tons on April 10.

Brazil's Soybean Exports Benefit as China Turns to Alternative Markets

Amid the backdrop of mutual high tariffs between the US and China, China has imposed an 84% tariff on US agricultural products, leading to a setback in US soybean exports. Chinese importers have turned to Brazil for purchases, recently buying about 40 ships, totaling 2.4 million tons of soybeans. This shift continues the trend since the 2018 trade war when China began reducing its reliance on US soybeans.

According to reports, Brazil has now become China's largest soybean supplier. US farmers face shrinking markets and price pressures, with some considering switching to crops like corn and calling for government assistance.

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