A CNBC survey reveals American consumers' pessimistic views on the economic outlook, which contrasts with the White House's optimistic expectations.

White House officials state that the U.S. economy is stable and poses no risk of recession, but surveys from CNBC and the Federal Reserve Bank show that consumers and businesses are pessimistic about the economic outlook. The surveys indicate that bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. is challenging, tariff policies are putting more pressure on businesses and consumers, the consumer confidence index is dropping, and corporate executives are warning that recession risks are rising. This highlights the gap between the White House's optimistic outlook and the public's feelings.

White House Optimistic: Economy "100% Will Not Enter Recession"

Kevin Hassett, Director of the U.S. National Economic Council, stated in an interview with Fox Business on April 14 that the U.S. "100% will not" enter an economic recession by 2025. He emphasized that more than 10 countries have proposed "very good and impressive" trade agreements to the U.S., and these developments will further strengthen the resilience of the U.S. economy.

However, this statement contrasts sharply with the results of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Survey of Consumer Expectations released on the same day. The survey shows that consumer expectations for an increase in unemployment over the next year have reached 44%, the highest since the early days of the pandemic in April 2020. Inflation expectations have also risen, indicating growing public concern about living costs and economic stability.

CNBC Survey: Reluctance to Return Manufacturing, Revival Difficult

A supply chain survey conducted by CNBC in April among 380 U.S. companies indicates that despite the Trump administration's push for high-tariff policies to promote manufacturing returning, 61% of companies prefer to move production lines to low-tariff countries rather than return to the U.S. The main reasons include:

• 57% of companies believe U.S. production costs are too high;
• 21% cite a lack of skilled technical workers;
• Only 14% find tax incentives attractive.

Moreover, even if companies choose to return, 81% of respondents said they would prioritize automation over hiring traditional labor, indicating that the actual contribution of returning manufacturing to the job market is limited.

Tariff Policies Create Dual Pressure on Businesses and Consumers

According to reports from CNBC and Business Insider, the Trump administration's high-tariff policies have significantly impacted business operations and consumer spending:

• 63% of companies predict the U.S. economy will enter a recession;
• 47% of companies plan to lay off employees;
• 51% expect consumer spending to decline in the second quarter of 2025;
• 89% of companies have canceled orders to cope with cost pressures.

Mark Baxa, President of the Association for Supply Chain Management, pointed out: "The biggest challenge for U.S. manufacturing is the labor market." He emphasized that uncertainty in policy and a high-tariff environment are undermining business confidence and willingness to invest in the future.

Index of Consumer Sentiment Declines, Spending Becomes Conservative

The University of Michigan's April Index of Consumer Sentiment fell from 57 in March to 50.8, the lowest level since June 2022. The survey shows:

• Nearly one-third of households expect their financial situation to worsen in a year;
• 58% believe presidential policies have led to higher food prices;
• 62% think policies have caused the stock market to decline;
• Only 18% believe policies can reduce living costs.

Additionally, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor report, retail sales in March grew only moderately, with many consumers choosing to stockpile in advance to avoid potential tariff impacts, indicating a shift towards conservative consumer behavior.

Business Leaders and Economists Warn: Recession Risks Rising

Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, stated in an interview with CNBC: "The U.S. is either very close to a recession or already in one." This view aligns with the results of a Chief Executive Association survey in April, which shows:

• 62% of CEOs expect an economic recession within the next six months;
• 75% believe tariffs will harm business operations;
• Only 37% expect company profits to grow, far below January's 76%.

Additionally, former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also pointed out that recent U.S. debt market volatility and a weakening dollar reflect "a loss of confidence in U.S. economic policy," warning that the Federal Reserve will face a more challenging decision-making environment.

Manufacturing Returning Timeline Far Off

According to the CNBC supply chain survey, among companies interested in rebuilding the U.S. local supply chain:

• 41% estimate it will take 3 to 5 years;
• 33% estimate it will take more than 5 years.

This means that even if policy directions remain unchanged, achieving a wave of manufacturing returning in the short term is difficult. Companies generally believe that instead of bearing high costs and risks associated with policy, it is better to seek more cost-effective production bases globally.

References

• CNBC Daily Open: Consumers don't agree with the White House that the economy will be fine
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