CBOE Specialist Warns: Uncertainty in U.S. Tariff Policies Could Trigger Ongoing Market Volatility

Taiwan • Business • 04/15 13:49
CBOE Specialist Warns: Uncertainty in U.S. Tariff Policies Could Trigger Ongoing Market Volatility

Experts at the Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) have noted that the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies has not yet been fully reflected in market prices, and more intense volatility may occur in the future. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has recently decreased, but experts believe this is just a temporary calm. The Trump administration is set to announce new tariff measures targeting high-tech products like semiconductors, posing challenges to the market due to policy ambiguity and technical pressures.

Key Updates

04/15 22:50

Escalation of the US-China Trade War: Trump's Increased Tariffs Trigger Agricultural Crisis, Promises to Aid Farmers

In April 2025, the US-China trade war escalated as the Trump administration imposed a 145% tariff on Chinese goods, and China retaliated with a 125% tariff, severely impacting US agricultural exports. The Trump administration urged farmers to stay strong via social media and considered reintroducing agricultural subsidies. Reactions from the agricultural sector and members of Congress were mixed, expressing concerns that the tariffs and potential subsidy cuts could cause long-term harm to agriculture. Soybean and sorghum exports were affected, putting financial pressure on farmers, causing some to waver in their support.

04/15 20:49

Despite the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, Chinese e-commerce platform DHgate has defied the odds, climbing to the 2nd position on the US App Store.

The Chinese cross-border e-commerce platform DHgate has risen to the second position in the free app rankings on the US App Store as of April 15, 2025, second only to ChatGPT, surpassing well-known apps such as Google. This phenomenon reflects a shift in consumer behavior in the context of US-China trade tensions and DHgate's growth in the US market. Driven by TikTok video promotions and the impact of high tariffs, DHgate has attracted American consumers with its low-priced products, in the process becoming China's largest B2B cross-border e-commerce platform.

04/15 18:52

Specialty coffee shops in the United States and importers are collectively adjusting prices due to cost pressures: From Oakland to Brooklyn

Many specialty coffee shops and importers across the United States have recently increased their prices due to climate change, trade policies, and rising costs. From Oakland, California, to Brooklyn, New York, businesses are facing a doubling of raw material prices, increased transportation and labor costs, and the pressure of new import tariffs. This price adjustment reflects the realities of the industry, highlighting that the coffee sector is at a pivotal moment of transformation.

04/15 18:20

In April, New York State manufacturing continued shrinking, with business sentiment hitting its lowest point since 2001.

In April 2025, manufacturing activity in New York State shrank for the second month in a row, with the general business conditions index rising from -20.0 to -8.1, but it still stayed in negative territory. The six-month business outlook index dropped to its second-lowest point since 2001, showing a dip in confidence. Recent shifts in tariff policies have increased economic uncertainty, pushing up the costs of raw materials and factory prices, and adding pressure on manufacturers.

04/15 14:53

Trump's delay in tariff policy sparks a global shipping rush, causing Taiwan's shipping stocks to soar.

President Trump of the United States announced a 90-day delay in implementing tariffs on most countries, prompting global companies to speed up shipments, causing a surge in transportation. Taiwanese shipping companies such as Wan Hai, Yang Ming, and Evergreen saw their stock prices rise, while EVA Air and China Airlines achieved record revenues. Investment firms such as Yuanta Investment Consulting suggest a bullish strategy until June, with T3EX Global Holdings making a substantial increase in its investment in Yang Ming Marine Transport, reflecting strong market confidence in the short-term outlook for the shipping industry.

04/15 13:49

CBOE Specialist Warns: Uncertainty in U.S. Tariff Policies Could Trigger Ongoing Market Volatility

Experts at the Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) have noted that the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies has not yet been fully reflected in market prices, and more intense volatility may occur in the future. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has recently decreased, but experts believe this is just a temporary calm. The Trump administration is set to announce new tariff measures targeting high-tech products like semiconductors, posing challenges to the market due to policy ambiguity and technical pressures.

04/15 12:50

In 2025, Trump Reelected to the White House: New Tariff Policies and Customs Procedures Will Reshape U.S. Trade.

In early 2025, after Donald Trump returned to the White House, he quickly pushed for policy changes that significantly impacted American education and trade. The Trump administration cracked down on diversity, equity, and inclusion programs and reformed the student loan system. On April 2, it announced a 10% tariff on imported goods, excluding those from Canada and Mexico, and imposed tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese goods. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection Agency strengthened enforcement, posing challenges for e-commerce. Under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), goods that meet the standards can still be traded duty-free.

04/15 09:48

A CNBC survey reveals American consumers' pessimistic views on the economic outlook, which contrasts with the White House's optimistic expectations.

White House officials state that the U.S. economy is stable and poses no risk of recession, but surveys from CNBC and the Federal Reserve Bank show that consumers and businesses are pessimistic about the economic outlook. The surveys indicate that bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. is challenging, tariff policies are putting more pressure on businesses and consumers, the consumer confidence index is dropping, and corporate executives are warning that recession risks are rising. This highlights the gap between the White House's optimistic outlook and the public's feelings.

04/15 08:50

China suspends accepting Boeing planes in response to the United States' 125% tariff, which poses a significant challenge for Boeing.

On April 15, 2025, the Chinese government ordered domestic airlines to suspend the acceptance of Boeing aircraft and stop purchasing related equipment in response to the United States imposing a 125% tariff. This action challenges Boeing in the Chinese market, and China is considering providing assistance to airlines leasing Boeing aircraft to ease cost pressures.

04/15 08:21

Temu's withdrawal from US advertising causes a sharp drop in App Store rankings due to US-China tariff policies.

Chinese e-commerce platform Temu encountered setbacks in its expansion into the US market. On April 9, 2025, Temu pulled out of Google Shopping ads in the US, leading to its iOS App Store download ranking plummeting from 3rd or 4th place to 58th. This shift happened amid the US raising tariffs on Chinese goods, highlighting Temu's dependence on advertising and its market vulnerability. The new US tariff policy has had a direct impact on its business model.

Ambiguity in Tariff Policy Heightens Market Anxiety

Former President Trump recently revived trade protectionism policies, having announced tariffs on certain high-tech products and indicating that semiconductor import tariffs will be announced this week. While some consumer electronics, such as smartphones and computers, are exempt, the overall policy direction remains unclear. Pepperstone research strategist Quasar Elizundia noted, "This lack of clarity, along with upcoming industry-specific tariffs, effectively limits further stock market gains."

This uncertainty in policy has already noticeably impacted market sentiment. According to data from Cboe Global Markets, the intraday volatility of the S&P 500 index nearly doubled last week, reaching 44%, surpassing the peak levels seen during the 2020 pandemic and approaching levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis. This extreme volatility has prompted investors to turn to "0DTE" (Zero Days to Expiration) options to hedge risks or capture short-term price fluctuations.

VIX Index Decline Masks Potential Risks

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often seen as a market fear gauge, recently fell 17.76%, closing at 30.89 points, marking the lowest closing price since April 3. At first glance, it seems that market sentiment has stabilized, but CBOE volatility expert Mandy Xu warned in a CNBC interview, "The current VIX level does not fully reflect potential policy risks, especially since the details and timeline of tariff policy implementation remain unclear."

Xu pointed out that the market is still in a wait-and-see mode regarding the Trump administration's potential selective tariffs on China and other trade partners. This "unpriced uncertainty" could trigger a new wave of volatility in the coming weeks.

Technical Pressure and Corporate Earnings Intertwine

Besides policy risks, technical factors are also exerting pressure on the market. The S&P 500 index is currently in a "death cross" technical pattern, where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average, often seen as a potential long-term bearish signal. Technical analysts suggest this pattern could heighten concerns about future market trends, especially amid heightened policy uncertainty.

Meanwhile, U.S. companies are gradually releasing their first-quarter 2025 earnings reports, but most maintain a conservative outlook for the future. Due to the lack of clarity in tariff policy, companies find it difficult to provide clear financial forecasts. For example, Dell and HP's stock prices rose by 4% and 2.5%, respectively, but analysts generally believe this reflects short-term earnings exceeding expectations rather than optimism about future operations.

Automotive and Semiconductor Industries in Focus

The automotive industry has emerged as another focal point of Trump's tariff policy. Trump recently stated his willingness to assist automakers in coping with a 25% auto tariff, emphasizing that automakers "need some time" to relocate their supply chains back to the U.S. This statement boosted Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis stock prices by 4.07%, 3.46%, and 5.64%, respectively. However, whether these gains can be sustained depends on the implementation of policy details.

On the other hand, the semiconductor industry faces more direct pressure. Politico reported that Trump is preparing to instruct the Commerce Department to initiate an investigation that could lead to tariffs on semiconductor products. TSMC ADR fell 0.79% to close at $155.84, reflecting market concerns about the industry's outlook.

Global Market Linkages and Capital Flows

The ripple effects of U.S. tariff policy have also affected global markets. The India VIX index plummeted 18.1% after Trump announced a delay in some tariff implementations, indicating a temporary calming of investor sentiment. However, analysts point out that this improvement may be short-lived, as China remains a major tariff target, and global supply chains still face restructuring pressures.

According to BlackRock's analysis, if tariffs are fully implemented, they could cause an annualized impact of 0.3% to 0.7% on global GDP growth. The company estimates that if effective tariffs rise by 20%, it could apply downward pressure of 2% to 2.5% on economic growth, potentially leading to decreased business confidence and delayed investments.

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