Early Days of President Trump's Second Term: Fast Money Traders Betting on Pharmaceuticals and Semiconductors, Avoiding Consumer Credit and Trade with China

Taiwan • Business • 04/30 01:30
Early Days of President Trump's Second Term: Fast Money Traders Betting on Pharmaceuticals and Semiconductors, Avoiding Consumer Credit and Trade with China

In the first 100 days of President Trump's second term, the U.S. financial markets saw significant volatility. Corporate investments hit new highs, but the stock market performed poorly. Facing the tariff war and policy uncertainty, traders, such as hedge funds, adjusted their strategies, placing bets on big pharmaceutical companies, semiconductors, and international markets, while steering clear of consumer credit, transportation, and industries tied to trade with China. According to CNBC's "Fast Money," traders shifted to gold and overseas assets because of the dollar's depreciation and market uncertainty. Even though some companies invested in the U.S., the S&P 500 and Nasdaq still declined, showing doubts about the policy outlook.

Key Updates

04/30 22:31

Microsoft's Third Quarter 2025 Financial Report Surpasses Expectations: Cloud Services Drive Revenue to Record Highs, Stock Price Jumps Over 6% in After-Hours Trading

On April 30, 2025, Microsoft announced its financial results for the third quarter of the fiscal year 2025, reporting revenue of $70.07 billion, an increase of 13% year-over-year, and a net profit of $25.8 billion, which is an 18% increase year-over-year, both figures exceeded expectations. The cloud and AI sectors experienced strong growth, with Azure's revenue growing by 33% year-over-year. Consequently, Microsoft's stock price increased by over 6% in after-hours trading.

04/30 18:00

Eurozone's GDP increased by 0.4% in the first quarter, exceeding expectations, leading to a rise in European stocks; U.S. economy shrinks unexpectedly by 0.3%.

In the first quarter of 2025, the Eurozone's GDP increased by 0.4% from the previous quarter, exceeding expectations and boosting European stock markets. The U.S. GDP contracted by an annualized 0.3%, marking the first decline in three years, due to an increase in imports and a decrease in government spending. The Eurozone economy continued to grow with support from multiple countries, while the U.S. economy was under pressure due to a widening trade deficit and sluggish job growth.

04/30 15:30

The U.S. GDP shrinkage in the first quarter has led to stock market volatility, and 360,000 Taiwanese mothers are facing the risk of depression.

In the first quarter of 2025, the US GDP declined at an annualized rate of 0.3%, missing the expected 0.4% growth, causing a drop in the three major US stock indices. The Dow Jones dropped 237 points, the S&P 500 fell 61 points, and the Nasdaq plunged 361 points. A survey in Taiwan indicates that about 360,000 mothers exhibit signs of depression, highlighting the pressures from family and society. This article examines US economic data and market reactions, connecting them to the current situation of maternal stress in Taiwan, offering a comprehensive view of the intersection between global economics and mental health.

04/30 13:03

The 'Big Seven' U.S. Tech Giants Stock Rebound Falters: Profit Growth Slows for Companies Such as Microsoft

At the beginning of 2025, the "Seven Giants," a group of American tech giants, saw a rebound, but the latest financial reports show slower profit growth, rising valuation pressure, and a blow to market confidence. Microsoft's earnings report exceeded expectations, but its stock price fell due to a decline in free cash flow margin and uncertainty about AI investment returns. The "Seven Giants" overall profit growth rate fell from 52% in 2024 to 21.4% in 2025. Investors' risk appetites have shifted, with funds moving into gold and other sectors, and analysts are split on their ratings of the "Seven Giants."

04/30 07:05

U.S. stock index futures fell across the board: Dow Jones futures fell 105 points, pressure from tech stocks drags Nasdaq futures down.

On April 30, 2025, at 1:31 PM Taipei time, futures for the three major U.S. stock indices fell. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 105 points to 40,553, down 0.26%; S&P 500 futures dropped 27.25 points to 5,556.5, down 0.49%; Nasdaq 100 futures fell 128 points to 19,514, down 0.65%. Investors are waiting for earnings reports from major U.S. tech companies and economic data, resulting in cautious market sentiment and subdued futures performance.

04/30 01:30

Early Days of President Trump's Second Term: Fast Money Traders Betting on Pharmaceuticals and Semiconductors, Avoiding Consumer Credit and Trade with China

In the first 100 days of President Trump's second term, the U.S. financial markets saw significant volatility. Corporate investments hit new highs, but the stock market performed poorly. Facing the tariff war and policy uncertainty, traders, such as hedge funds, adjusted their strategies, placing bets on big pharmaceutical companies, semiconductors, and international markets, while steering clear of consumer credit, transportation, and industries tied to trade with China. According to CNBC's "Fast Money," traders shifted to gold and overseas assets because of the dollar's depreciation and market uncertainty. Even though some companies invested in the U.S., the S&P 500 and Nasdaq still declined, showing doubts about the policy outlook.

04/30 01:01

The United States and India reached a trade agreement for the first time, leading the Dow Jones Index to jump 300 points, and both TSMC's ADR and Tesla's stock prices increased.

On April 29, 2025, U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Lutnick, announced that the Trump administration had completed its first trade agreement, pending approval from the counterpart government, with India possibly being the partner. This news drove U.S. stocks higher, with the Dow Jones index rising by 300 points and the stock prices of TSMC ADR and Tesla also increasing. U.S.-China trade tensions intensified, with both sides imposing significant tariffs on each other. The U.S. imposed tariffs of up to 245% on Chinese goods, while China responded with retaliatory tariffs of 125% on U.S. goods.

04/29 23:01

The Dow Jones rose 300 points, achieving six consecutive days of gains, as the White House announced a trade agreement. In Trump's first 100 days, the stock market performance was the worst in half a century.

On April 29, 2025, the three major U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones climbing 300.03 points to 40,527.62, achieving a six-day winning streak. The S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq indices also rose for the sixth consecutive day. The White House announced a trade agreement with an undisclosed country and signed an executive order to lower automobile tariffs, boosting the stock market. Nevertheless, the stock market performance in the first 100 days of Trump's second term was the worst in fifty years, with significant declines in technology and small-cap indices, indicating internal market divisions.

04/29 22:32

US Ends Tax-Free Status for Chinese E-commerce: How Are Temu Orders Still Untaxed?

In April 2025, American consumers shopping on the Temu platform noticed that some orders were not subject to import fees, despite the Trump administration revoking the "de minimis" tax exemption for China and Hong Kong on May 2. This move drew attention as tariffs as high as 145% and import fees up to $200 per package are about to be implemented. The article explores the legal background of the U.S. "de minimis" system and how Chinese e-commerce platforms such as Temu and Shein have leveraged this system for cross-border sales, and analyzes the impact of these policy changes on their business models.

04/29 17:30

U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin: Ordinary investors continue to hold stocks due to their trust in President Trump.

At a White House press conference on April 29, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant stated that despite market fluctuations due to President Trump's high tariff policies, ordinary investors continue to hold their stocks, indicating their trust in Trump. Bessant cited data from Vanguard, noting that 97% of Americans refrained from stock trading during the first 100 days of Trump's presidency, which reflects confidence in his policies. Against this backdrop, the Trump administration is conducting trade negotiations with several countries and exerting pressure on China.

Pharmaceuticals and Semiconductors: Overlooked Opportunities

Amid a general market downturn, certain asset classes are favored by short-term traders for their "safe haven" characteristics. Karen Finerman states that large pharmaceutical stocks are currently "severely oversold" and are mostly unaffected by the Trump administration's tariff policies. This makes the sector one of the top choices for capital seeking refuge.

Tim Seymour is optimistic about the semiconductor industry, calling it the "ultimate cyclical sector," with valuations currently suppressed and future supply-demand dynamics set to restart. He notes that despite tech giants like Apple, Nvidia, and Meta seeing significant market cap reductions after Trump's return, the fundamentals of the semiconductor industry remain attractive, especially against the backdrop of global supply chain restructuring and a surge in U.S. domestic manufacturing investment.

International Markets: The Rise of the MIGA Strategy

Seymour further proposes the "MIGA" (Make International Great Again) strategy, advocating for a shift of funds to more attractively valued international markets amid U.S. market volatility. He specifically mentions that the German DAX index has outperformed the S&P 500 since the end of 2023 and expects this trend to continue. This view aligns with observations from institutions like Morgan Stanley and Oxford Economics, which note that investors are gradually reducing their allocation to U.S. assets in favor of European and Asian markets.

Cash is King: Short-term Appeal of Defensive Assets

Dan Nathan takes a more conservative stance. He believes "cash will be king" and points out that even traditional defensive assets like utilities, consumer staples, and U.S. Treasuries may not be spared in a tariff-triggered recession. He advises traders to maintain high liquidity while waiting for clearer market direction.

The Double-edged Sword of Retail

Guy Adami has a dual perspective on the retail sector. He notes that retail could benefit from the return of domestic manufacturing and increased employment opportunities, but it could also suffer from declining consumer confidence and rising prices. He emphasizes, "This is an unpredictable area, but risks and opportunities coexist."

High-risk Areas: Transportation, Consumer Credit, and China Exposure

In terms of risk, traders generally avoid industries closely tied to global trade. Finerman warns that while the container shipping industry currently benefits from demand brought forward, it will face a dual blow of reduced volume and declining revenue if the tariff war persists.

Nathan further points out that transportation-related industries like "planes, trains, and automobiles" will be hit first. He expects companies with close trade ties to China to face long-term pressure, especially after the Trump administration imposed tariffs as high as 125% on Chinese goods.

Seymour also expresses concern about the consumer credit and discretionary consumer goods industries. He believes U.S. consumers will tighten spending due to high prices and a deteriorating job market, further impacting these industries' revenues and stock prices.

Fast Money Flows: Gold, Cash, and Overseas Assets

Spencer Hakimian, CEO of Tolou Capital Management, states that the fund has shifted its asset allocation from long-term U.S. Treasuries to gold. He notes, "We believe dollar-based safe-haven assets are facing a crisis of confidence." This view aligns with the trend of the dollar index dropping 9% since Trump's inauguration.

Additionally, Evan Russo, CEO of Lazard's asset management division, also expects more funds to exit the U.S. and move to other markets in the coming months.

Investor Sentiment and Market Performance: Contradictions and Divisions

Despite companies like Apple and Hyundai announcing hundreds of billions of dollars in U.S. investment plans, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have fallen by more than 7% and 11%, respectively, indicating lingering market doubts about policy prospects. According to Forbes, 800 American billionaires collectively lost $300 billion in the first 100 days of Trump's second term, with Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Mark Zuckerberg suffering the most significant losses.

Meanwhile, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, holding large amounts of cash and defensive assets, has gone against the trend and increased by 13%, becoming one of the few winners.

References

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