Barron's Survey: Investors are more pessimistic about the stock market than they have been in 30 years, with only 20% supporting Trump's tariff policies, with bonds and gold being favored.

Taiwan • Business • 05/04 14:00
Barron's Survey: Investors are more pessimistic about the stock market than they have been in 30 years, with only 20% supporting Trump's tariff policies, with bonds and gold being favored.

The spring 2025 survey by Barron's Financial Magazine shows that only 26% of fund managers are optimistic about the stock market for the coming year, setting the lowest record since 1997. Trump's high tariff policies have only 20% support, as the market is concerned about a potential economic recession. Bonds and gold are seen as safe-haven assets, favored by 70% and 58% of respondents, respectively, indicating a shift in asset allocation to defensive strategies.

Key Updates

05/05 09:02

Shanghai May Day Holiday Export Goods Mega Sale: High-Quality Export Products at Discounts Up to 80% Off Sparks a Buying Frenzy

During the May Day Golden Week in 2025, many regions in mainland China, especially Shanghai, experienced a consumer boom of "export-to-domestic-demand." High-quality products originally exported to Europe and the United States were sold locally at prices as low as 20% of their original price, attracting a large number of consumers. Products included thermos cups that won the German Red Dot Award and woven shoes made for European and American brands. This phenomenon occurred because the U.S. increased tariffs, prompting companies to pivot to the domestic market and sell through exhibitions and pop-up stores, reflecting the trend of foreign trade companies actively tapping into the domestic market.

05/05 07:06

Indonesia and the United States have begun tariff negotiations, while Chinese e-commerce and car companies adjust strategies to address tariff pressures from the US and Europe.

Indonesia and the United States have begun negotiations on mutual tariff policies, focusing on energy and critical mineral cooperation, with Indonesia committing to increase imports of American products. The Chinese e-commerce platform Temu has stopped selling Chinese goods due to the new U.S. tariff policy, sparking a surge in the resale market. Chinese car manufacturers like BYD and Chery are promoting plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) models in the EU in an effort to circumvent high tariffs. The South Korean stock market has resumed trading, and the government continues to negotiate tariff policies with the U.S. to prepare for the transition to the new administration.

05/05 02:00

US-China trade war is reshaping the global economy: agricultural and technology stocks are taking a hit, South America is on the rise, and US stocks have risen for nine consecutive days.

In early May 2025, the US-China tariff war heated up, severely hitting American agricultural and technology industries, with South American countries like Brazil filling the gap in the Asian market. Nevertheless, the US stock market rose for nine straight days as investors focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and trade negotiations. OPEC+ ramped up production, causing oil prices to fall, and the weakening dollar boosted the value of Asian currencies, shifting capital flows and exchange rate dynamics.

05/04 19:02

The U.S. semiconductor tariff investigation is approaching its deadline, causing concern in the industry and leading to the emergence of hedging strategies in the bond market.

The U.S. Department of Commerce's investigation into the national security implications of imported semiconductors will conclude on May 7, with little public feedback, causing industry concerns over potential tariff policies. The Trump administration's tariff policies have already led to market fluctuations, especially impacting the semiconductor supply chain. Experts advise investors to shift to investment-grade corporate bonds for hedging, as the safe-haven status of U.S. Treasury bonds is under scrutiny.

05/04 15:30

The United States imposes a 25% tariff on imported automotive and motorcycle parts, leading to increased costs for Harley-Davidson. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba expresses strong disappointment.

On May 4, 2025, the United States imposed a 25% tariff on imported auto and motorcycle parts, affecting the global automotive industry. Harley-Davidson motorcycles, which rely on imported parts, are under pressure from rising costs and potential price hikes. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba expressed disappointment that the U.S. did not grant special treatment for Japan and called for the withdrawal of the tariff measures. This policy is likely to impact consumer prices in the coming months, especially affecting manufacturers whose vehicles are not assembled in the United States.

05/04 14:00

Barron's Survey: Investors are more pessimistic about the stock market than they have been in 30 years, with only 20% supporting Trump's tariff policies, with bonds and gold being favored.

The spring 2025 survey by Barron's Financial Magazine shows that only 26% of fund managers are optimistic about the stock market for the coming year, setting the lowest record since 1997. Trump's high tariff policies have only 20% support, as the market is concerned about a potential economic recession. Bonds and gold are seen as safe-haven assets, favored by 70% and 58% of respondents, respectively, indicating a shift in asset allocation to defensive strategies.

05/04 13:29

U.S. retailers offer pre-tariff hike sales, encouraging consumers to shop early to dodge price hikes

Facing upcoming tariff hikes, American retailers are rolling out promotions to boost spending. From Walmart to Bare Necessities, brands are using early promotions and witty marketing to urge consumers to buy before prices go up. This reflects the pressure on supply chains and heightened consumer price sensitivity. Smaller brands are under more pressure to survive and must depend on promotions to keep their revenue steady. Consumers are buying holiday gifts early and turning to discount retailers to deal with rising prices.

05/04 12:31

Massachusetts state-based Excel Dryer company benefits from the domestic supply chain as a result of Trump's tariff policy.

In the second term of the Trump administration, Excel Dryer, a hand dryer maker in Massachusetts, benefited because its domestic supply chain layout was unaffected by tariffs. The company collaborated with American suppliers to develop products that are entirely made in the USA, boosting global competitiveness. Excel's experience shows that tariff policies can encourage localization among small and medium-sized manufacturers, though they still face challenges like labor shortages. At the same time, General Motors took a flexible approach, planning to set up bases both in the U.S. and abroad to deal with the impact of tariffs.

05/04 10:00

U.S. Levies High Tariffs on Solar Panels from Southeast Asia: Impact and Prospects for Energy Transition

In April 2025, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced punitive tariffs as high as 3521% on solar panels from Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia, on top of the existing 10% base tariff and the 145% tariff on Chinese products. This policy targets Chinese companies that engage in simple processing in Southeast Asia to avoid high tariffs. While it may severely impact Southeast Asian exports, experts think it might speed up the region's energy transition. This article examines U.S. tariff policies, industry reactions, and the current state of energy transition in Southeast Asia.

05/04 07:02

Chinese designer toy brand Pop Mart has achieved explosive growth in overseas markets, overcoming high tariffs from the US.

Against the backdrop of the United States imposing tariffs as high as 145% on Chinese goods, the Chinese trendy toy brand Pop Mart has defied the trend by experiencing growth, with its overseas market revenue increasing by nearly 480% in the first quarter and a 900% increase in the American market. Even though the price in the U.S. rose from $22 to $28, consumers are still eager to buy. Some U.S. retailers, like Walmart, have opted to absorb the tariff costs to maintain supply chain stability. This phenomenon highlights the bargaining power and resilience of China's cultural and creative industries in the global market.

Investor Confidence Plummets: Stock Market Outlook Hits 30-Year Low

According to the Barron's Spring 2025 survey, only 26% of fund managers are optimistic about the stock market over the next year, marking the lowest level since 1997. Compared to last fall's survey, where 50% of respondents were bullish and only 18% were bearish, the bearish proportion has now risen to 32%, the highest in almost 30 years. Moreover, 56% of respondents indicated that their clients are pessimistic about the stock market outlook.

This shift in sentiment comes in the wake of the Trump administration's early April announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" on over 180 countries worldwide. Although a 90-day suspension was announced on April 9, the market had already suffered significant impact. CFS Investment Advisory co-founder Niedich noted, "Trump may have gone too far with tariffs. This is one of the five most severe periods of uncertainty and chaos I've encountered in my career, with too many unknowns."

Low Support for Tariff Policy, Market Fears Recession

The survey shows that only 20% of respondents support Trump's tariff policy, while about 80% believe these policies could lead to a recession, with over 40% believing the likelihood of a recession is above 40%. Nonetheless, 60% of respondents believe that market volatility could present buying opportunities.

Investor concerns about Trump's policies extend beyond tariffs to their potential impact on the overall economy and corporate profits. The S&P 500 index recorded double-digit gains in the past two years but has fallen about 4% this year. 58% of respondents believe the stock market is overvalued, with only 4% considering it undervalued. Pessimists expect the Dow Jones Industrial Average to drop by 7%, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices to see double-digit declines.

Bonds and Gold Become Safe Havens

Amidst uncertain stock market prospects, investors are evidently shifting their asset allocation towards defensive assets. The survey indicates that nearly 75% of respondents have a higher proportion of fixed-income assets than six months ago, and 70% are optimistic about the bond market. 62% expect the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds to fall below 4% within a year, reflecting market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might make several small rate cuts this summer.

Gold is also favored, with 58% of respondents optimistic about it. In addition to concerns about the economic outlook, gold purchases by central banks in China, India, and other emerging markets are seen as key factors supporting gold prices. International gold prices have risen nearly 27% since the beginning of the year, making it one of the top-performing assets this year.

Investor Anxiety Surpasses Previous Crises

Notably, despite investors having experienced the dot-com bubble burst, 9/11 attacks, Lehman Brothers collapse, the 2008 financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic, this survey indicates that their anxiety about financial markets, the economy, and national prospects is higher than ever. This sentiment is reflected in the conservative asset allocation and heightened sensitivity to policy uncertainty.

References

People Also Ask...

faq

Why do investors view Trump's tariff policy unfavorably, and what other factors are impacting their confidence?

faq

Wow, investors are really pessimistic about the stock market these days, so what are they buying to protect themselves?

faq

Does this article mention the investors in our community's views on the stock market?