One Month into the US-China Trade War: Chinese Stationery Exporters Resume Shipping to the US, with Tariff Costs Passed on to American Customers

Taiwan • Business • 05/01 13:01
One Month into the US-China Trade War: Chinese Stationery Exporters Resume Shipping to the US, with Tariff Costs Passed on to American Customers

As trade tensions between the US and China heat up, with both sides imposing high tariffs on each other, some Chinese stationery and other exporters have resumed shipments to the US because American importers are facing urgent inventory shortages and struggling to find alternative suppliers. Even though the US has imposed tariffs as high as 145% on Chinese goods, the cost is passed on to American customers and is reflected in retail prices, indicating the market's dependence on Chinese-made products.

Key Updates

05/02 03:05

In 2025, the US-China trade war heated up: China called for the removal of unilateral tariffs in order to facilitate dialogue.

On May 2, 2025, China's Ministry of Commerce announced it is evaluating the United States' willingness to enter into dialogue, reiterating that the U.S. must remove unilateral punitive tariffs as a precondition for negotiations. The U.S. has imposed tariffs of 145% on Chinese goods, and China has retaliated with tariffs of 125%, resulting in a decline in U.S. exports to China, impacting 860,000 jobs, with the agricultural sector hit hardest. Trade tensions between the two countries are escalating, with growing calls for dialogue and tariff cuts.

05/01 18:32

April manufacturing data from the U.S. affects expectations for a rate cut, U.S. bond market falls.

In April, U.S. manufacturing activity shrank less than anticipated, as the ISM manufacturing index dropped to 48.7, surpassing the forecast of 47.9, prompting a revision in market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this year. U.S. Treasury yields bounced back from their lows, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.208%. Federal funds futures suggest the likelihood of a June rate cut has dropped to 58%. This shift highlights the market's sensitivity to economic data and how policy expectations affect the bond market.

05/01 18:01

Microsoft is raising Xbox prices to $380 for the Series S and $600 for the Series X due to the trade war and increased development costs.

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05/01 17:01

In April 2025, the US manufacturing PMI index fell to 48.7, indicating a continued contraction.

In April 2025, U.S. manufacturing activity further contracted, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI dropping from 49.0 in March to 48.7, staying below the 50-point mark for the second month in a row, signaling a contraction. Even though there was a slight improvement in new orders and employment, the decline in output, rising price pressures, and fewer export orders highlight multiple challenges. Uncertainty around tariff policies and supply chain bottlenecks are adding to the pressures on businesses.

05/01 17:01

Decline in U.S. Retail Performance in Q1 2025: Pressure from Tariff Policies Affects Consumer Confidence

In the first quarter of 2025, the annual U.S. GDP rate declined by 0.3%, marking its first contraction in three years, mainly due to a surge in imports and the effects of tariff policies. Financial reports from brands such as McDonald's, Harley-Davidson, and Estée Lauder indicate declining sales and weakened consumer confidence. The U.S. imposed tariffs as high as 145% on Chinese goods, resulting in a surge in imports and a record trade deficit. The consumer confidence index dropped to its lowest point since the pandemic, highlighting the adverse effects of tariff policies on the economy.

05/01 13:01

One Month into the US-China Trade War: Chinese Stationery Exporters Resume Shipping to the US, with Tariff Costs Passed on to American Customers

As trade tensions between the US and China heat up, with both sides imposing high tariffs on each other, some Chinese stationery and other exporters have resumed shipments to the US because American importers are facing urgent inventory shortages and struggling to find alternative suppliers. Even though the US has imposed tariffs as high as 145% on Chinese goods, the cost is passed on to American customers and is reflected in retail prices, indicating the market's dependence on Chinese-made products.

05/01 12:31

General Motors Cuts 2025 Forecast Due to U.S. Tariff Policies, Expects a $5 Billion Cost Impact

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05/01 09:30

U.S.-China Trade War Heats Up: How American Investors Can Handle Market Risks and Economic Shocks

Amid the escalating US-China trade war and the turmoil in global supply chains, the US stock market has demonstrated resilience. Despite the first quarter GDP contraction, the S&P 500 index has only decreased by 2.4% since the announcement of tariffs. Investors underestimated the impact of the trade war and adjusted their asset allocation strategies to favor defensive assets. The dollar index declined, and international funds flowed to Europe and emerging markets. Companies are reorganizing supply chains to address risks. Small-cap stocks are facing both challenges and opportunities, consumer confidence is waning, and corporate investment remains hesitant.

05/01 00:41

Progress in tariff negotiations between the Trump administration and India: Plans to use the cancellation of the AI chip export classification system as trade leverage

At the end of April 2025, President Trump of the United States stated that the U.S.-India tariff talks are going smoothly, and a trade deal is expected soon. Officials from the U.S. Department of the Treasury and the Department of Commerce highlighted that India could be among the first to sign a trade deal in Trump's second term. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is considering scrapping the AI chip export classification system from Biden's time, choosing instead to use intergovernmental agreements for export authorization, using AI chips as a bargaining chip in trade talks, which could deeply impact the global semiconductor supply chain.

04/30 14:33

China canceled an order for 12,000 tons of U.S. pork: escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, severely impacting the U.S. supply chain.

In April 2025, China canceled an order for 12,000 tons of U.S. pork imports, marking the largest cancellation record since 2020, due to U.S. tariff measures. This move led to significant inventory and value losses for U.S. exporters, impacting the agricultural supply chain and the slaughtering and processing industries. Tariffs up to 172% limit the competitiveness of U.S. pork in the Chinese market, and China's unique demand for pork by-products makes it challenging for alternative markets to absorb the supply. The U.S. holds advantages in cost and supply flexibility, but in the short term, the market gap and pressures from supply chain adjustments are significant.

Export Rebound: Inventory Pressure Forces US to Restart Orders

According to a report by "Daily Economic News," a leading Chinese stationery exporter revealed that although overall shipments to the US have not fully resumed, some orders have started shipping. An insider from the company noted, "Our salespeople have reported that it might be because US customers are running low on domestic inventory, so they are asking us to resume regular shipments. For example, for a large order, US customers might request shipments of $70,000 or $100,000 to ensure their normal operations."

The recovery of these orders does not signify an improvement in the trade environment but reflects the realistic choices of US importers facing high tariffs and supply chain bottlenecks. The insider further explained, "The tariffs are still borne by the (US) customers, and once they receive the products domestically, they will adjust the retail prices."

Irreplaceable Role in the Supply Chain

China is one of the world's largest exporters of stationery, accounting for about 30% of the global office stationery exports. In this context, even when faced with high tariffs, US importers find it difficult to quickly find alternative suppliers that match in quality, price, and capacity.

The stationery company representative pointed out, "We still hold a certain market share in the US market, and we are also a market leader in specific product categories. It is somewhat difficult for US customers to find a supplier that can replace us at the moment."

This situation is not isolated. During the 137th Canton Fair, several Chinese exporters reported receiving notifications from large US retailers like Walmart to resume shipments. The report noted that these companies are currently supplying Walmart, with the tariff costs also borne by the US side. Additionally, some suppliers indicated that shipments to US chain hardware stores have also resumed.

Supply Chain Reorganization and Bottlenecks Under Tariff Pressure

Despite some shipment recovery, overall US-China trade remains in a state of contraction. According to data from the maritime intelligence platform Linerlytica, China's shipments to the US plummeted by 50% in April. Although there is some supplementation from Southeast Asia, it still cannot fill the gap in the trans-Pacific route.

The shipping industry has also shown a significant reaction. Maersk, the world's second-largest container shipping company, stated that it has begun replacing large vessels with smaller ones to cope with the sudden drop in demand on the US-China route. Shipping brokers in Singapore and London noted that about 24 sailings from China to the US West Coast were canceled in May alone. Los Angeles Port Executive Director Gene Seroka also confirmed that the container volume expected to arrive this week will be 30.4% less than last week.

Moreover, many US importers are choosing to rely on inventory in duty-free warehouses to delay tax payments and cope with short-term supply disruptions. The Baltic Exchange pointed out that the current situation in the shipping industry is reminiscent of the supply chain chaos at the beginning of the pandemic.

Market Response: Price Increases and Limited Product Choices

The US domestic market is also beginning to feel the supply pressure. President Trump stated after a cabinet meeting that he is not worried about shortages of Chinese goods, claiming that many Chinese products are "non-essential goods." He gave an example: "Maybe kids will only have two dolls instead of 30. Maybe those two dolls will cost a few dollars more than usual."

However, the reality shows that some products are indeed difficult to replace. According to a survey by Freightos, 33% of US small and medium-sized enterprises have suspended imports to reassess their strategies. Some retailers have chosen to raise prices to pass on the tariff costs.

In fields such as printing supplies, toys, and plastic products, many US companies still heavily rely on Chinese supplies. Jay Foreman, CEO of toy manufacturer Basic Fun, stated that they have suspended imports of products like Tonka trucks and Care Bears from China and hope to rely on existing inventory to weather this period.

The Practical Challenges of Supply Chain Adjustment

Although exports from countries like Vietnam and Thailand have slightly increased, according to a report by Flexport, the growth in these regions is only 5% to 10%, far from enough to fill the gap left by Chinese exports. Supply chain transitions require time, capital, and the establishment of new supplier relationships, making it difficult to achieve a comprehensive replacement in the short term.

In this context, the resumption of shipments by some Chinese exporters reflects the real pressure and market reliance during the supply chain adjustment process. Even though tariffs remain, when inventory is critical and alternatives are difficult, the market still returns to the original suppliers, even at a higher cost.

References

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Why do American importers choose to handle high tariffs and keep bringing in stationery from China?

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Hmm, why do U.S. importers continue to import stationery from China?

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Why are American importers shouldering the high tariff costs of Chinese goods?