China canceled an order for 12,000 tons of U.S. pork: escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, severely impacting the U.S. supply chain.
In April 2025, China canceled an order for 12,000 tons of U.S. pork imports, marking the largest cancellation record since 2020, due to U.S. tariff measures. This move led to significant inventory and value losses for U.S. exporters, impacting the agricultural supply chain and the slaughtering and processing industries. Tariffs up to 172% limit the competitiveness of U.S. pork in the Chinese market, and China's unique demand for pork by-products makes it challenging for alternative markets to absorb the supply. The U.S. holds advantages in cost and supply flexibility, but in the short term, the market gap and pressures from supply chain adjustments are significant.
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04/30 14:33
China canceled an order for 12,000 tons of U.S. pork: escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, severely impacting the U.S. supply chain.
In April 2025, China canceled an order for 12,000 tons of U.S. pork imports, marking the largest cancellation record since 2020, due to U.S. tariff measures. This move led to significant inventory and value losses for U.S. exporters, impacting the agricultural supply chain and the slaughtering and processing industries. Tariffs up to 172% limit the competitiveness of U.S. pork in the Chinese market, and China's unique demand for pork by-products makes it challenging for alternative markets to absorb the supply. The U.S. holds advantages in cost and supply flexibility, but in the short term, the market gap and pressures from supply chain adjustments are significant.
China's Order Cancellations Impact U.S. Pork Exporters
In April 2025, China canceled import orders for 12,000 tons of U.S. pork products, citing U.S. tariff measures as the reason. According to Erin Borror, Vice President of the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), this batch of pork was mostly produced to meet Chinese market standards, including being ractopamine-free, using Chinese labels, and specialized packaging, making it difficult to redirect to other markets. She noted, "This is not just about the meat; it's an entire supply chain tailored for China."
The cancellation of these orders has left U.S. exporters dealing with substantial inventory and financial losses. According to USMEF estimates, losing a single Chinese order results in an average loss of $8 to $10 per pig, considering by-products, with total annual losses potentially reaching $1 billion (approximately NT$32.5 billion). These losses affect not only the exporters themselves but also the entire agricultural supply chain, including feed supply, slaughtering, processing, and cold chain logistics.
By-Product Market Limitations and Supply Chain Challenges
The demand for pork by-products in the Chinese market is unique and substantial, particularly for pig heads, feet, tails, and various organs, which are common cooking ingredients in China but have limited demand in other markets. Brett Stuart, an economist at Global AgriTrends, pointed out, "China is the only market in the world that absorbs these by-products on a large scale." He emphasized that losing this export channel would weaken the overall profitability structure of the U.S. slaughtering and processing industry.
While some by-products can be converted into feed ingredients, their prices are far lower than the profits that could be obtained from exporting to China. This puts greater financial pressure on processors and could have a chain effect on live pig prices, further squeezing the profit margins of farmers and processors.
High Tariffs as an Export Barrier
Currently, U.S. pork and related by-products exported to China face an actual import tax rate of up to 172%, while beef products face a rate of 147%. These tariffs have almost shut U.S. livestock products out of the Chinese market. USMEF noted that China has not renewed export licenses for hundreds of U.S. processing plants, further limiting export capacity.
These tariffs stem from the escalation of the U.S.-China trade war. According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), China imported over $27 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products in 2024, making it the third-largest importer of U.S. agricultural products, after Mexico and Canada. The importance of the Chinese market to U.S. agriculture is undeniable.
U.S. Pork's Dependence on the Chinese Market
In 2023, the total volume of U.S. pork exported to China reached 416,000 tons, accounting for about 18% of China's total imports, making China the third-largest market for U.S. pork exports, following Mexico and Japan. This high level of dependence means that any policy changes from China could significantly impact the U.S. pork industry.
Analysts point out that as China takes retaliatory measures, the U.S. market share in China could be replaced by countries like Brazil and Argentina. These countries have relatively open trade policies with China and are competitive in pork and by-product supply. China has accelerated its shift to these alternative suppliers, further weakening the U.S. position in the market.
Supply Flexibility and Potential Alternative Markets
Despite facing short-term pressure, experts believe the U.S. pork industry still has certain competitive advantages. Brett Stuart noted that the U.S. still has advantages in cost control and supply flexibility and is optimistic that within the next 2 to 3 months, the U.S. could sign new trade agreements with countries like Vietnam, the Philippines, or Australia to partially alleviate the pressure from the loss of the Chinese market.
However, the demand for pork by-products in these potential markets is far from comparable to that of China, making it difficult to fully fill the gap left by the Chinese market. Erin Borror expressed concern, saying, "These products were specifically designed for the Chinese market, but now we're not sure where they can go."
