In April 2025, private sector job growth in the United States slowed to 62,000, marking a nine-month low.

Taiwan • Business • 04/30 13:31
In April 2025, private sector job growth in the United States slowed to 62,000, marking a nine-month low.

In April 2025, the U.S. private sector added 62,000 jobs, which was below the expected range of 115,000 to 125,000, representing the smallest increase since July 2024. ADP data shows that companies are cautiously expanding their workforce due to uncertainties in policy and consumer behavior. This report was released two days before the U.S. Department of Labor's non-farm employment report, offering the latest insights into the labor market.

Key Updates

05/01 13:01

One Month into the US-China Trade War: Chinese Stationery Exporters Resume Shipping to the US, with Tariff Costs Passed on to American Customers

As trade tensions between the US and China heat up, with both sides imposing high tariffs on each other, some Chinese stationery and other exporters have resumed shipments to the US because American importers are facing urgent inventory shortages and struggling to find alternative suppliers. Even though the US has imposed tariffs as high as 145% on Chinese goods, the cost is passed on to American customers and is reflected in retail prices, indicating the market's dependence on Chinese-made products.

05/01 12:31

General Motors Cuts 2025 Forecast Due to U.S. Tariff Policies, Expects a $5 Billion Cost Impact

General Motors (GM) has revised down its 2025 financial forecast due to the U.S. imposing a 25% tariff on imported cars and parts, which is anticipated to raise costs by $5 billion. This move impacts GM's profit outlook, forcing GM to suspend its stock repurchase program and withdraw its full-year earnings guidance. The U.S. has eliminated the "de minimis" exemption for Chinese imports, putting pressure on e-commerce retailers dependent on the Chinese supply chain, highlighting the effects of shifts in U.S. trade policy on corporate operations.

05/01 09:30

U.S.-China Trade War Heats Up: How American Investors Can Handle Market Risks and Economic Shocks

Amid the escalating US-China trade war and the turmoil in global supply chains, the US stock market has demonstrated resilience. Despite the first quarter GDP contraction, the S&P 500 index has only decreased by 2.4% since the announcement of tariffs. Investors underestimated the impact of the trade war and adjusted their asset allocation strategies to favor defensive assets. The dollar index declined, and international funds flowed to Europe and emerging markets. Companies are reorganizing supply chains to address risks. Small-cap stocks are facing both challenges and opportunities, consumer confidence is waning, and corporate investment remains hesitant.

05/01 00:41

Progress in tariff negotiations between the Trump administration and India: Plans to use the cancellation of the AI chip export classification system as trade leverage

At the end of April 2025, President Trump of the United States stated that the U.S.-India tariff talks are going smoothly, and a trade deal is expected soon. Officials from the U.S. Department of the Treasury and the Department of Commerce highlighted that India could be among the first to sign a trade deal in Trump's second term. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is considering scrapping the AI chip export classification system from Biden's time, choosing instead to use intergovernmental agreements for export authorization, using AI chips as a bargaining chip in trade talks, which could deeply impact the global semiconductor supply chain.

04/30 14:33

China canceled an order for 12,000 tons of U.S. pork: escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, severely impacting the U.S. supply chain.

In April 2025, China canceled an order for 12,000 tons of U.S. pork imports, marking the largest cancellation record since 2020, due to U.S. tariff measures. This move led to significant inventory and value losses for U.S. exporters, impacting the agricultural supply chain and the slaughtering and processing industries. Tariffs up to 172% limit the competitiveness of U.S. pork in the Chinese market, and China's unique demand for pork by-products makes it challenging for alternative markets to absorb the supply. The U.S. holds advantages in cost and supply flexibility, but in the short term, the market gap and pressures from supply chain adjustments are significant.

04/30 13:31

In April 2025, private sector job growth in the United States slowed to 62,000, marking a nine-month low.

In April 2025, the U.S. private sector added 62,000 jobs, which was below the expected range of 115,000 to 125,000, representing the smallest increase since July 2024. ADP data shows that companies are cautiously expanding their workforce due to uncertainties in policy and consumer behavior. This report was released two days before the U.S. Department of Labor's non-farm employment report, offering the latest insights into the labor market.

04/30 11:04

China plans to exempt certain American goods from the 125% tariff, focusing on textile and semiconductor companies.

The Chinese government is implementing a tariff exemption policy, exempting certain American goods from the 125% retaliatory tariffs, including ethane, certain pharmaceuticals, aircraft engines, and some semiconductor products. Local governments are conducting investigations into textile and semiconductor companies to evaluate the impact of the trade war. Companies must verify if their imported goods qualify for the exemption. The policy has yet to be officially announced, indicating a pragmatic adjustment by China despite maintaining a tough stance.

04/30 09:30

Due to Uncertainty from Trump's Tariff Policy, Stellantis Pauses Full-Year 2025 Forecast

On April 30, 2025, global automaker Stellantis announced that due to the frequent changes in President Trump's tariff policies on imported cars and components, creating an uncertain market outlook, the company has decided to withdraw its financial guidance for the full year 2025 and reassess its capital expenditure plans. Other automakers, such as General Motors and Mercedes-Benz, have also withdrawn their financial forecasts due to tariff uncertainties, highlighting the automotive industry's significant concern over changes in U.S. trade policies.

04/30 09:02

EVA Air's Response to U.S. Tariff Policies: Adjusting Flight Routes and Adding Cargo Flights to Southeast Asia

In response to the U.S. reciprocal tariff policy, EVA Air is closely monitoring the changes in passenger demand during the summer and anticipates a shift in some cargo volume from China to Southeast Asia. The company has launched a route adjustment plan, aiming to add cargo flights to destinations like Penang, Hanoi, and Bangkok. General Manager Sun Chia-ming mentioned that passenger transport saw growth in the first quarter, while the cargo market is adjusting its routes due to supply chain shifts, allowing for a flexible response to market changes.

04/30 07:05

S&P Global: The trade war will not affect the credit ratings of the US and China in the short term. According to S&P Global, following Trump's tariff hikes, the US rating remains stable, while China's rating has been downgraded by Fitch.

In early April 2025, President Trump of the United States announced tariffs on global goods imported into the U.S., raising market concerns regarding the sovereign credit ratings of both China and the U.S. S&P Global indicated that in the short term, the trade war would not directly impact the sovereign credit ratings of China and the U.S., maintaining a stable outlook for the U.S.'s AA+ credit rating and noting the resilience of China's A+ credit rating. However, after Trump's announcement of tariffs, Fitch downgraded China's credit rating by one notch, becoming the first major agency to adjust China's credit rating.

Private Sector Job Growth Falls Short of Expectations

According to a report jointly released by ADP and the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, the U.S. private sector added only 62,000 jobs in April, significantly below economists' general expectations of 115,000 to 125,000, and far less than the revised 147,000 in March. This marks the smallest monthly increase since July 2023.

ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson noted in the report: "'Uncertainty' is the key word today. Employers are trying to balance between policy and consumer uncertainty. Despite generally positive overall economic data, making hiring decisions in such an environment remains challenging."

Overview of Employment Changes by Industry

From an industry distribution perspective, the service sector overall added 34,000 positions, with leisure and hospitality showing the strongest performance, adding 27,000 jobs. The trade, transportation, and utilities sector increased by 21,000, while the financial activities sector added 20,000. However, the education and health services sector saw a reduction of 23,000 positions, and the information sector decreased by 8,000.

In the goods-producing sector, employment increased by 26,000, mainly driven by the construction industry's contribution of 16,000. These figures indicate that while some industries still have growth momentum, overall hiring activity has noticeably slowed.

Hiring Trends by Company Size

In terms of company size, small and medium-sized enterprises were the main source of employment growth in April. Companies with 50 to 249 employees added 21,000 jobs, while those with 250 to 499 employees increased by 19,000. Micro-enterprises with 1 to 19 employees also added 20,000 positions. However, companies with 20 to 49 employees cut 9,000 jobs, and large enterprises (500+ employees) added only 12,000, indicating more cautious hiring among larger companies.

Overall Labor Market Context: Decline in Job Openings and Quit Rates

A day before the ADP report, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the March Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), showing that the number of job openings nationwide at the end of March was 7.19 million, down from 7.48 million in February, marking the lowest level since December 2020. This figure also fell short of economists' expectations of 7.5 million.

Additionally, the hiring rate remained at 3.4% in March, while the quit rate slightly rose to 2.1%, but both remain near decade lows. The ratio of job openings to unemployed persons also dropped to 1.02, the lowest since the post-pandemic recovery, indicating nearly one job opening per unemployed person, in stark contrast to the 2:1 ratio at the peak in 2022.

Expectations for Upcoming Official Employment Report

The ADP report is often seen as a leading indicator for the U.S. Department of Labor's non-farm payroll report, although the two differ in statistical methods and coverage. According to forecasts compiled by Bloomberg, the non-farm payroll report to be released this Friday (May 5) is expected to show an addition of 133,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.2%. In comparison, the non-farm payroll increase in March was 228,000, with the unemployment rate also at 4.2%.

Wage Growth and Small Business Dynamics

According to ADP data, the annual salary increase for retained employees in April was 4.5%, down by 0.1 percentage points from March, while the salary increase for job switchers rose to 6.9%. Additionally, Paychex's April Small Business Employment Watch report indicated that the employment index for companies with fewer than 50 employees slightly rose to 100.02, showing that overall employment levels in small businesses remain stable.

However, hourly wage growth slowed to 2.82%, the lowest since May 2021, reflecting a conservative approach to wage adjustments among small businesses.

References

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